U.S. Livestock & Meat Trade Update – Sep ’20
Executive Summary
U.S. livestock and meat trade figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Jul ’20. Highlights from the updated report include:
Mexico and Japan have historically been the largest importers of U.S. pork products, accounting for nearly half of the total U.S. pork export volumes throughout the past five years. Combined U.S. pork export volumes destined to Mexico and Japan have declined by 4.7% on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months, however. Throughout the past 12 months, YOY increases in U.S. pork exports have been led by product destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan, while shipments destined to South Korea have declined most significantly on a YOY basis over the period.
U.S. pork import volumes finished lower on a YOY basis for the first time in the past three months during Jul ’20, declining by 6.9%. Pork import volumes had finished lower on a YOY basis over 24 consecutive months prior to increasing throughout the months of May and June. The increase in pork export volumes, coupled with the decline in import volumes, resulted in U.S. net pork trade finishing up 4.1% YOY during Jul ’20, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in net pork trade was the 15th experienced in a row.
’18-’19 annual net pork trade increased 5.6% YOY, finishing at a record high level for the second consecutive year. ’19-’20 YTD net pork trade has increased an additional 27.9% on a YOY basis throughout the first ten months of the production season.
Beef & Veal – Net Trade Remains Negative as Imports Reach a 15 Year High Level
U.S. beef & veal export volumes declined on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month during Jul ’20, finishing down 8.0% and reaching a three year seasonal low level. YOY declines in U.S. beef & veal export volumes were led by shipments destined to Mexico, while export volumes destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan finished most significantly higher on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Japan, South Korea, China, Hong Kong & Taiwan, Mexico and Canada have historically been the largest importers of U.S. beef & veal products, combining to account for nearly 90% of the total U.S. beef & veal export volumes throughout the past five years. Throughout the past 12 months, U.S. beef & veal export volumes destined to Canada have increased most significantly on a YOY basis, while shipments destined to Mexico have declined most significantly on a YOY basis over the period.
U.S. beef & veal import volumes increased on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month during Jul ’20, finishing up 41.1% and reaching a 15 year high level. Beef & veal import volumes continued to exceed export volumes for the fifth consecutive month during Jul ’20, resulting in U.S. beef & veal trade finishing at a negative level.
’18-’19 annual beef & veal net trade finished at a positive level for the second consecutive year however beef & veal net trade remained 54.2% below previous year levels. ’19-’20 YTD net beef & veal trade has declined to a negative level throughout the first ten months of the production season.
Broilers – Net Trade Declines on a YOY Basis for the Third Consecutive Month, Finishes Down 2.5%
U.S. broiler export volumes finished lower on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month throughout Jul ’20, declining by 2.6%. Broiler export volumes had finished higher on a YOY basis over seven consecutive months prior to the three most recent declines. YOY declines in U.S. broiler export volumes were led by shipments destined to Cuba, followed by volumes destined to Angola and Mexico, while export volumes destined to Vietnam increased most significantly on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Mexico has historically been the largest importer of U.S. broilers, accounting for over one fifth of the total U.S. broiler export volumes throughout the past five years. Throughout the past 12 months, U.S. broiler export volumes destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan have increased most significantly on a YOY basis, followed by volumes destined to Vietnam, while shipments destined to Angola have declined most significantly on a YOY basis over the period.
U.S. broiler import volumes declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past three months during Jul ’20, finishing down 4.6%. Broiler import volumes remained at insignificant levels relative to export volumes as Jul ’20 imports amounted to just 2.2% of export volumes. The YOY decline in broiler export volumes more than offset the YOY decline in import volumes, resulting in U.S. broiler net trade finishing 2.5% lower on a YOY basis during Jul ’20. The YOY decline in broiler net trade was the third experienced in a row.
’18-’19 annual net broiler trade finished up 1.7% YOY, reaching a five year high, despite declines experienced throughout the final months of the production season. ’19-’20 YTD net broiler trade has increased by an additional 2.2% on a YOY basis throughout the first ten months of the production season, despite the most recent decline.
Combined Net Trade
Overall, combined net trade of U.S. pork, beef and broilers declined on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month during Jul ’20, finishing down 123.6 million pounds, or 12.0%. The YOY decline in combined net trade of U.S. pork, beef and broilers was the second largest experienced throughout the past four and a half years, trailing only the previous month’s decline. Combined net trade of U.S. pork, beef and broilers had reached an eight and a half year high growth rate throughout the month of March, prior to decelerating throughout the next several months.
- U.S. net pork trade increased on a YOY basis for the 15th consecutive month during Jul ’20, finishing up 4.1% and reaching a record high seasonal level. Pork export volumes increased 2.5% on a YOY basis throughout the month, driven higher by continued growth in volumes destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan. The YOY increase in pork export volumes was the smallest experienced throughout the past 14 months, however.
- U.S. beef & veal export volumes declined on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month throughout Jul ’20, finishing 8.0% below previous year levels. Net beef & veal trade finished at a negative level for the fifth consecutive month as import volumes reached a 15 year high level.
- U.S. net broiler trade declined on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month, finishing down 2.5%.
Mexico and Japan have historically been the largest importers of U.S. pork products, accounting for nearly half of the total U.S. pork export volumes throughout the past five years. Combined U.S. pork export volumes destined to Mexico and Japan have declined by 4.7% on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months, however. Throughout the past 12 months, YOY increases in U.S. pork exports have been led by product destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan, while shipments destined to South Korea have declined most significantly on a YOY basis over the period.
U.S. pork import volumes finished lower on a YOY basis for the first time in the past three months during Jul ’20, declining by 6.9%. Pork import volumes had finished lower on a YOY basis over 24 consecutive months prior to increasing throughout the months of May and June. The increase in pork export volumes, coupled with the decline in import volumes, resulted in U.S. net pork trade finishing up 4.1% YOY during Jul ’20, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in net pork trade was the 15th experienced in a row.
’18-’19 annual net pork trade increased 5.6% YOY, finishing at a record high level for the second consecutive year. ’19-’20 YTD net pork trade has increased an additional 27.9% on a YOY basis throughout the first ten months of the production season.
Beef & Veal – Net Trade Remains Negative as Imports Reach a 15 Year High Level
U.S. beef & veal export volumes declined on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month during Jul ’20, finishing down 8.0% and reaching a three year seasonal low level. YOY declines in U.S. beef & veal export volumes were led by shipments destined to Mexico, while export volumes destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan finished most significantly higher on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Japan, South Korea, China, Hong Kong & Taiwan, Mexico and Canada have historically been the largest importers of U.S. beef & veal products, combining to account for nearly 90% of the total U.S. beef & veal export volumes throughout the past five years. Throughout the past 12 months, U.S. beef & veal export volumes destined to Canada have increased most significantly on a YOY basis, while shipments destined to Mexico have declined most significantly on a YOY basis over the period.
U.S. beef & veal import volumes increased on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month during Jul ’20, finishing up 41.1% and reaching a 15 year high level. Beef & veal import volumes continued to exceed export volumes for the fifth consecutive month during Jul ’20, resulting in U.S. beef & veal trade finishing at a negative level.
’18-’19 annual beef & veal net trade finished at a positive level for the second consecutive year however beef & veal net trade remained 54.2% below previous year levels. ’19-’20 YTD net beef & veal trade has declined to a negative level throughout the first ten months of the production season.
Broilers – Net Trade Declines on a YOY Basis for the Third Consecutive Month, Finishes Down 2.5%
U.S. broiler export volumes finished lower on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month throughout Jul ’20, declining by 2.6%. Broiler export volumes had finished higher on a YOY basis over seven consecutive months prior to the three most recent declines. YOY declines in U.S. broiler export volumes were led by shipments destined to Cuba, followed by volumes destined to Angola and Mexico, while export volumes destined to Vietnam increased most significantly on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Mexico has historically been the largest importer of U.S. broilers, accounting for over one fifth of the total U.S. broiler export volumes throughout the past five years. Throughout the past 12 months, U.S. broiler export volumes destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan have increased most significantly on a YOY basis, followed by volumes destined to Vietnam, while shipments destined to Angola have declined most significantly on a YOY basis over the period.
U.S. broiler import volumes declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past three months during Jul ’20, finishing down 4.6%. Broiler import volumes remained at insignificant levels relative to export volumes as Jul ’20 imports amounted to just 2.2% of export volumes. The YOY decline in broiler export volumes more than offset the YOY decline in import volumes, resulting in U.S. broiler net trade finishing 2.5% lower on a YOY basis during Jul ’20. The YOY decline in broiler net trade was the third experienced in a row.
’18-’19 annual net broiler trade finished up 1.7% YOY, reaching a five year high, despite declines experienced throughout the final months of the production season. ’19-’20 YTD net broiler trade has increased by an additional 2.2% on a YOY basis throughout the first ten months of the production season, despite the most recent decline.
Combined Net Trade
Overall, combined net trade of U.S. pork, beef and broilers declined on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month during Jul ’20, finishing down 123.6 million pounds, or 12.0%. The YOY decline in combined net trade of U.S. pork, beef and broilers was the second largest experienced throughout the past four and a half years, trailing only the previous month’s decline. Combined net trade of U.S. pork, beef and broilers had reached an eight and a half year high growth rate throughout the month of March, prior to decelerating throughout the next several months.