U.S. Livestock & Meat Trade Update – Nov ’16
Executive Summary
U.S. livestock and meat trade figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Sep ’16. Highlights from the updated report include:
• Net pork trade increased on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive month during Sep ’16, finishing up 6.2%.
• Net beef & veal trade remained negative for the ninth consecutive month during Sep ’16, despite import volumes declining on a YOY basis for the 12th consecutive month.
• Net broiler trade increased on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month during Sep ’16, finishing 22.2% above the previous year.
Additional Report Details
Pork – Net Trade Finishes Higher on a YOY Basis for the Fifth Consecutive Month
According to USDA, Sep ’16 U.S. pork export volumes increased 3.2% MOM on a daily average basis while remaining higher on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive month, finishing up 3.0%. Of the major export destinations, YOY increases in export volumes were led by shipments destined to Mexico (+14.4%), followed by combined shipments to Hong Kong, Taiwan and China (+9.7%). Export volumes destined to Mexico and China more than offset declines in shipments destined to Japan (-5.5%), South Korea (-4.3%) and Canada (-2.2%) throughout the month. U.S. pork export volumes destined to the aforementioned countries accounted for nearly 85% of all pork export volumes during Sep ’16.
U.S. pork import volumes finished lower on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month during Sep ’16, declining by 7.7%. The increase in pork export volumes, coupled with the decline in import volumes, resulted in Sep ’16 U.S. net pork trade finishing up 6.2% YOY. Net pork trade has increased on a YOY basis over five consecutive months through September. ’14-’15 annual net pork trade finished down 10.7% to a new five year low however net pork trade rebounded by 2.5% throughout the ’15-’16 production season. ’15-’16 annual pork export volumes finished up 1.9% YOY but remained 0.6% below three year average figures while ’15-’16 annual pork import volumes finished 0.2% below the 11 year high experienced during the previous year.
Beef & Veal – Net Trade Remains Negative for the Ninth Consecutive Month
According to USDA, Sep ’16 U.S. beef & veal export volumes declined 2.7% MOM on a daily average basis from the two year high experienced during the previous month but remained higher on a YOY basis, finishing up 29.5%. Of the major export destinations, YOY increases in export volumes were widespread and led by shipments destined to South Korea (+82.8%), followed by shipments destined to Japan (+35.8%), combined shipments to Hong Kong, Taiwan and China (+35.4%) and shipments destined to Canada (+7.5%) and Mexico (+5.1%). U.S. beef & veal export volumes destined to the aforementioned countries accounted for over 85% of all beef & veal export volumes during Sep ’16.
Sep ’16 U.S. beef & veal import volumes remained lower on a YOY basis for the 12th consecutive month, finishing down 24.1%. Despite the YOY declines, beef & veal import volumes continue to exceed export volumes, resulting in Sep ’16 net beef & veal trade remaining negative for the ninth consecutive month. ’15-’16 annual beef & veal net trade finished negative for the third consecutive year despite export volumes increasing by 3.7% YOY and import volumes declining by 16.6% throughout the 12 month period.
Chicken –Net Broiler Trade Increases on a YOY Basis for the Third Consecutive Month
Sep ’16 U.S. broiler export volumes increased 5.0% MOM on a daily average basis while also finishing higher on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month, increasing by 21.8%. Broiler export volumes increased to a 23 month high on an absolute basis while the YOY increase was the largest experienced in the past five years on a percentage basis. Of the major export destinations, YOY increases in broiler export volumes were led by combined shipments destined to Hong Kong, Taiwan and China (+20.2%), although broiler export volumes destined to Canada (-14.5%) and Mexico (-4.4%) declined for the fourth consecutive month.
U.S. broiler import volumes declined on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month during Sep ’16, finishing down 0.5%. Broiler import volumes remain at insignificant levels relative to export volumes, with Sep ’16 imports amounting to less than 2.0% of export volumes. The YOY increase in broiler export volumes, coupled with the YOY decline in import volumes, resulted in U.S. broiler net trade finishing up 22.2% YOY during Sep ’16. The YOY increase in net broiler trade was the largest experienced throughout the past five years on a percentage basis. Net broiler trade declined 10.9% throughout the ’14-’15 production season and finished down an additional 3.3% throughout the previous 12 months, despite the most recent YOY gains. Broiler export volumes declined 3.1% YOY while import volumes increased 8.1% YOY throughout the ’15-’16 production season.
Combined net trade of U.S. pork, beef and broilers increased on a YOY basis for the ninth time in the past 11 months during Sep ’16. The Sep ’16 YOY increase in combined net trade of pork, beef and broilers reached a five year high on an absolute basis. Combined net trade of pork, beef and broilers had declined over 18 consecutive months from May ’14 – Oct ’15 and finished down 21.5% YOY throughout the ’14-’15 production season prior to rebounding by 6.2% throughout the most recent 12 months.
Beef & Veal – Net Trade Remains Negative for the Ninth Consecutive Month
According to USDA, Sep ’16 U.S. beef & veal export volumes declined 2.7% MOM on a daily average basis from the two year high experienced during the previous month but remained higher on a YOY basis, finishing up 29.5%. Of the major export destinations, YOY increases in export volumes were widespread and led by shipments destined to South Korea (+82.8%), followed by shipments destined to Japan (+35.8%), combined shipments to Hong Kong, Taiwan and China (+35.4%) and shipments destined to Canada (+7.5%) and Mexico (+5.1%). U.S. beef & veal export volumes destined to the aforementioned countries accounted for over 85% of all beef & veal export volumes during Sep ’16.
Sep ’16 U.S. beef & veal import volumes remained lower on a YOY basis for the 12th consecutive month, finishing down 24.1%. Despite the YOY declines, beef & veal import volumes continue to exceed export volumes, resulting in Sep ’16 net beef & veal trade remaining negative for the ninth consecutive month. ’15-’16 annual beef & veal net trade finished negative for the third consecutive year despite export volumes increasing by 3.7% YOY and import volumes declining by 16.6% throughout the 12 month period.
Chicken –Net Broiler Trade Increases on a YOY Basis for the Third Consecutive Month
Sep ’16 U.S. broiler export volumes increased 5.0% MOM on a daily average basis while also finishing higher on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month, increasing by 21.8%. Broiler export volumes increased to a 23 month high on an absolute basis while the YOY increase was the largest experienced in the past five years on a percentage basis. Of the major export destinations, YOY increases in broiler export volumes were led by combined shipments destined to Hong Kong, Taiwan and China (+20.2%), although broiler export volumes destined to Canada (-14.5%) and Mexico (-4.4%) declined for the fourth consecutive month.
U.S. broiler import volumes declined on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month during Sep ’16, finishing down 0.5%. Broiler import volumes remain at insignificant levels relative to export volumes, with Sep ’16 imports amounting to less than 2.0% of export volumes. The YOY increase in broiler export volumes, coupled with the YOY decline in import volumes, resulted in U.S. broiler net trade finishing up 22.2% YOY during Sep ’16. The YOY increase in net broiler trade was the largest experienced throughout the past five years on a percentage basis. Net broiler trade declined 10.9% throughout the ’14-’15 production season and finished down an additional 3.3% throughout the previous 12 months, despite the most recent YOY gains. Broiler export volumes declined 3.1% YOY while import volumes increased 8.1% YOY throughout the ’15-’16 production season.
Combined net trade of U.S. pork, beef and broilers increased on a YOY basis for the ninth time in the past 11 months during Sep ’16. The Sep ’16 YOY increase in combined net trade of pork, beef and broilers reached a five year high on an absolute basis. Combined net trade of pork, beef and broilers had declined over 18 consecutive months from May ’14 – Oct ’15 and finished down 21.5% YOY throughout the ’14-’15 production season prior to rebounding by 6.2% throughout the most recent 12 months.