U.S. Livestock & Meat Trade Update – Oct ’15
Pork – Net Trade Declines to Seven Month Low Aug ’15 U.S. pork export volumes increased 6.4% YOY but continued to decline seasonally, falling 5.4% MOM on a daily average basis. U.S. pork exports destined to South Korea remained strong, increasing YOY for the 19th consecutive month and finishing 11.7% above the previous year, while export volumes destined to Mexico and Japan increased by 15.4% and 4.0%, respectively. Exports destined to Canada declined for the fifth consecutive month on a YOY basis however, finishing 4.5% below the previous year. U.S. pork exports to Japan, Mexico, South Korea and Canada accounted for over three quarters of all pork export volumes in Aug ’15. Aug ’15 U.S. pork imports remained higher on a YOY basis, increasing by 11.4%. U.S. pork imports have increased YOY throughout 17 of the past 18 months and are up 20.3% YTD through August. Aug ’15 U.S. net pork trade finished down 9.0% MOM on a daily average basis but up 4.9% YOY as the YOY increase in export volumes outweighed the YOY increase in import volumes. Despite the YOY gain, net pork trade remains down 12.3% YTD through the first 11 months of the production season. U.S. pork export volumes have strengthened considerably over the past 25 years, increasing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.2%, while U.S. pork imports have remained fairly flat, increasing at a CAGR of 0.3% over the same time period. ’13-’14 annual pork imports experienced much stronger growth, finishing 10.5% higher than the previous year, the largest YOY percentage gain in 11 years. Despite the increase in pork imports, ’13-’14 annual pork exports volumes remained over five times as large as import volumes. Pork export volumes have remained over four times as large as import volumes throughout the first 11 months of the ’14-’15 production season. Beef & Veal – Net Trade Remains Down Significantly YOY Aug ’15 U.S. beef & veal export volumes remained weak, declining 23.6% YOY and 11.9% MOM on a daily average basis. Beef & veal export volumes have declined YOY for 14 consecutive months through August. Of the major export destinations, YOY declines in export volumes were led by combined volumes to Hong Kong, Taiwan and China (-38.8%), followed by Japan (-38.3%), Canada (-17.1%), and Mexico (-16.7%). Export volumes to South Korea increased YOY for the seventh consecutive month but finished just 0.2% higher than the previous year. U.S. beef & veal exports to the aforementioned countries accounted for over 85% of all beef & veal export volumes in Aug ’15. Aug ’15 U.S. beef & veal imports remained strong, increasing 8.9% YOY and 27.8% MOM on a daily average basis. Beef & veal import volumes have increased YOY for 18 consecutive months through Aug ’15, exceeding export volumes by 35.1% over the period. Recent strength in beef & veal imports resulted in ’13-’14 annual U.S. beef & veal imports finishing higher than annual U.S. beef & veal exports for the first time in four years, with this trend continuing into the ’14-’15 production season. Beef & veal net trade declined to a new seven and a half year low in Apr ’15. Chicken – Net Trade Declines to New Four and a Half Year Low on Weak Export Demand Aug ’15 U.S. broiler export volumes remained weak declining 18.3% YOY and 0.3% MOM on a daily average basis to a new four and a half year low. Monthly export volumes have declined YOY throughout ten of the past 11 months as the broiler export market continues to be negatively affected by the Russian import ban. Russia accounted for 8.2% of U.S. broiler export volumes throughout the ’12-’13 production season. Excluding Russia, Jun ’15 broiler export volumes remained down 16.7% YOY, however, as declines were also experienced in other major U.S. broiler import markets. Combined broiler export volumes to Hong Kong, Taiwan and China finished down 28.6% YOY, while broiler export volumes to Mexico declined YOY for the fourth consecutive month, finishing down 1.4%. U.S. broiler export volumes destined to Mexico had increased YOY for 17 consecutive months from Dec ’13 – Apr ’15. Despite the recent declines, broiler export volumes to Mexico have accounted for over a fifth of total broiler export volumes over the past 12 months. Aug ’15 U.S. broiler imports remained strong, increasing by 8.7% YOY and 17.5% MOM on a daily average basis. Despite the recent gains, broiler imports remain at insignificant levels relative to export volumes, with Aug ’15 imports amounting to only 2.3% of export volumes. Declining broiler exports, coupled with increasing imports, resulted in Aug ’15 net broiler trade declining YOY for the tenth time in the past 11 months, finishing down 18.8% and also reaching a new four and a half year low. Net broiler trade is down 9.8% YTD YOY through the first 11 months of the ’14-’15 production season. U.S. broiler export volumes have strengthened considerably over the past 25 years, increasing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.3%. U.S. broiler import volumes have increased at a CAGR of 21.6% over the same time period but remain significantly lower. ’13-’14 annual broiler exports volumes were over 60 times as large as import volumes. Broiler export volumes have remained 54 times as large as import volumes throughout the first 11 months of the ’14-’15 production season.