U.S. Livestock & Meat Trade Update – Feb ’15
Pork – YOY Net Trade Declines for Sixth Consecutive Month Dec ’14 U.S. pork export volumes increased 4.8% MOM on a daily average basis but continued to decline YOY, finishing 13.0% lower than last year. The monthly YOY decline was the sixth in a row after seven consecutive months of YOY export volume increases. Of the major U.S. pork export destinations, YOY volume declines were led by Japan, with shipments down 16.5% YOY. Exports destined to Canada and Mexico also declined YOY by 3.3% and 3.1%, respectively. Exports destined to South Korea remained strong, increasing YOY for the 11th consecutive month, finishing up 12.0%. U.S. pork exports to Mexico, Japan, South Korea and Canada accounted for over three quarters of all pork export volumes in Dec ’14. Dec ’14 U.S. pork imports increased 35.9% YOY and 11.6% MOM on a daily average basis. U.S. pork imports have increased YOY for ten consecutive months which, when coupled with the YOY declines in exports, has resulted in a continued decline in YOY U.S. pork net trade figures. Dec ’14 net pork trade was up 2.7% MOM on a daily average basis but down 22.7% YOY. The Sep ’14 – Dec ’14 monthly YOY declines in net trade have been the largest in over five years. U.S. pork export volumes have strengthened considerably over the past 25 years, increasing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.2%, while U.S. pork imports have remained fairly flat, increasing at a CAGR of 0.3% over the same time period. ’13-’14 annual pork imports experienced much stronger growth, finishing 10.5% higher than the previous year, the largest YOY percentage gain in 11 years. Despite the increase in pork imports, ’13-’14 annual pork exports volumes remained over five times as large as import volumes. Beef & Veal – YOY Net Trade Declines for Tenth Consecutive Month Dec ’14 U.S. beef & veal export volumes increased 0.5% MOM on a daily average basis but continued to decline YOY, finishing 9.0% lower than last year. Combined U.S. beef & veal export volumes to Hong Kong, Taiwan and China increased YOY for the first time in six months, finishing 10.5% higher, however export volumes to Canada, Mexico and Japan all declined on a YOY basis, finishing 18.3%, 15.2% and 5.2% lower, respectively. U.S. beef & veal exports to the aforementioned countries accounted for over 90% of all beef & veal export volumes in Dec ’14. Dec ’14 U.S. beef & veal imports remained significantly higher, increasing 72.7% YOY, the largest monthly YOY increase in over ten years. Beef & veal import volumes exceeded export volumes for the tenth consecutive month in Dec ’14, with import volumes exceeding export volumes by 18.6% over the period. Recent strength in beef & veal imports resulted in ’13-’14 annual U.S. beef & veal imports finishing higher than annual U.S. beef & veal exports for the first time in four years. This trend has continued into the ’14-’15 production season, with December net trade being the lowest in six years. Chicken – Broiler Export Volumes Weak Due to Russian Import Ban Dec ’14 U.S. broiler export volumes declined 1.6% YOY and 4.4% MOM on a daily average basis. Monthly export volumes have declined YOY for three consecutive months as the broiler export market continues to be negatively affected by the Russian import ban. Russia accounted for 8.2% of U.S. broiler export volumes throughout the ’12-’13 production season. Excluding Russia, broiler export volumes increased by 4.0% YOY in Dec ’14. U.S. broiler export volumes to Mexico increased on a YOY basis for the 13th consecutive month, finishing up 10.3% YOY. Broiler export volumes to Mexico have accounted for over a fifth of total broiler export volumes over the past 12 months. Dec ’14 U.S. broiler imports increased 15.3% YOY but declined 0.6% MOM on a daily average basis. Broiler imports remain at insignificant levels relative to export volumes, with Dec ’14 imports amounting to only 1.9% of export volumes. U.S. broiler export volumes have strengthened considerably over the past 25 years, increasing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.3%. U.S. broiler import volumes have increased at a CAGR of 21.6% over the same time period but remain significantly lower. ’13-’14 annual broiler exports volumes were over 60 times as large as import volumes.