May 2013 USDA World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates
May 13 USDA World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates
- ’12/’13 Corn
- Ethanol use was adjusted up 50 million while exports were reduced 50 million leaving ending stocks at a tight but manageable 759 million bushels or 24.9 days of use.
- ’13/’14 Corn
- Initial new crop supply and demand projection was for yields 5 bushels per acre below trendline on delayed planting but total production was a significant 3.36 billion bushels higher than last year’s drought reduced total.
- Feed use estimates are expected to rebound 925 million bushels from severely rationed levels in the current marketing year.
- Exports came in 650 million bushels higher than the current marketing year but still would be well below previous years’ levels.
- Ending stocks were projected at 2 billion bushels or 56.6 days of use which was in line with private estimates and one of the highest projections for domestic supplies since 2004/2005.
- ’12/’13 Soybeans
- No changes.
- ’13/’14 Soybeans
- Yields are projected to rebound to near trend line at 44.5 bushels per acre pushing production 375 million bushels higher than last year’s drought reduced levels.
- Crush and exports are estimated 160 million bushels higher than last year.
- Ending stocks are projected to more than double to 265 million bushels or 29.6 days of use.
- Other Markets
- World corn production for 2013/2014 is projected to increase an amazing 109 million tons or 4.29 billion bushels over last year’s production pushing ending stocks to the highest level in 13 years.
- World soybean production for 2013/2014 is projected to increase 15.9 million tons or 625 million bushels above last year’s record production leaving ending stocks at the highest levels ever.
- Foreign grain and oilseed production is projected to continue surging higher and competing against domestic production of corn, soybeans, and wheat. Barring a major crop failure similar to last season’s North American harvest, the world will be well supplied moving through the fall harvest.