EIA Drilling Productivity Report Update – Jan ’20
According to the EIA’s January Drilling Productivity Report, U.S. oil output is expected to continue to increase through February. The Drilling Productivity Report uses recent data on the total number of drilling rigs in operation, estimates of drilling productivity, and estimated changes in production from existing wells to provide estimated changes in oil production for the seven key regions shown below. Jan ’20 production levels were revised 43,000 barrels per day (bpd), or 0.5%, above levels previously forecasted while finishing 33,000 bpd, or 0.4%, above Dec ’19 production levels. Feb ’20 production levels are expected to increase an additional 22,000 bpd, or 0.2%, from the Jan ’20 revised production levels to 9.20 million bpd, finishing at the highest figure on record. Feb ’20 production forecasts are expected to finish higher on a YOY basis for the 36th consecutive month, up 13.4% from the previous year levels. The Feb ’20 projected MOM increase in oil production would be the 35th experienced throughout the past 38 months but the smallest experienced throughout the past 12 months on an absolute basis. Oil production is expected to remain particularly strong within the Permian region, increasing by 0.9% on a MOM basis and more than offsetting a 0.5% MOM decline in expected oil production throughout the six other key regions. U.S. drilled-but-uncompleted (DUC) wells continued to decline from the Mar ’19 record highs, however, finishing lower for the seventh consecutive month. DUC wells, which have been drilled by producers but have not yet been made ready for production, have been compiled since Dec ’13. The Dec ’19 DUC wells figure of 7,573 finished 0.7% below the previous month, reaching a 14 month low level. The decline in DUC wells was the smallest experienced throughout the past seven months, however. Anadarko DUC wells declined most significantly from the previous month, offsetting a slightly MOM increase in combined DUC wells experienced throughout the other production regions.