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Soybean Complex Crushing & Stocks Update – Jan ’20

  • January 3, 2020
  • by Belinda Przybylski
Executive Summary U.S. soybean crush and stocks figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Nov ’19. Highlights from the updated report include:
  • Nov ’19 U.S. soybean crushings declined on a YOY basis for the second time in the past three months, finishing down 1.9%.
  • Nov ’19 U.S. soybean cake & meal stocks increased 44.5% on a YOY basis, reaching a five year seasonal high level.
  • Nov ’19 U.S. soybean oil stocks increased to a four month high level but remained 3.8% below previous year volumes.
Additional Report Details Soybean Crushing – Crush Declines YOY for the Second Time in Three Months, Finishes Down 1.9% According to USDA, Nov ’19 U.S. soybean crushings finished lower on a YOY basis for the second time in the past three months, declining by 1.9%. Nov ’19 YOY declines in soybean crushings were largest throughout Iowa, followed by the South, West & Pacific states of Alabama, Arkansas, California, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina and South Carolina. Soybean crushings finished most significantly higher on a YOY basis throughout the North Central states of Michigan, Minnesota, North Dakota and South Dakota. Despite declining on a YOY basis, Nov ’19 soybean crushings remained 0.3% above three year average figures. 2018 annual soybean crushings increased 9.4% YOY, reaching a record annual high, however 2019 YTD soybean crushings remain down 0.8% on a YOY basis heading into the final month of the calendar year. Cake & meal accounted for 73.6% of the total soybean crush throughout Nov ’19, up slightly from the previous year, while oil accounted for 17.3% of the total soybean crush, down slightly from the previous year. Nov ’19 soybean oil produced as a percentage of total crush declined to a 14 month low level, finishing below historical average figures for the second consecutive month. Soybean Cake & Meal Stocks – Stocks Finish 44.5% Higher YOY, Reach a Five Year High Seasonal Level Nov ’19 U.S. soybean cake & meal stocks increased 27.2% MOM and 44.5% YOY, finishing higher on a YOY basis for the first time in the past three months and reaching a five year seasonal high level. The seasonal increase in soybean cake & meal stocks of 27.2% was a contraseasonal move when compared to the three year October – November seasonal average decline in stocks of 5.7%. Nov ’19 soybean cake & meal stocks finished 26.4% above three year average seasonal levels. Soybean Oil Stocks – Stocks Rebound to a Four Month High Level but Remain Down 3.8% YOY Nov ’19 U.S. soybean oil stocks increased 3.5% MOM to a four month high level but remained 3.8% below previous year volumes. The YOY decline in soybean oil stocks was the 11th experienced in a row but the smallest experienced throughout the 11 month period on a percentage basis. The seasonal build in soybean oil stocks of 3.5% was greater than the three year October – November seasonal average build of 0.5%. Nov ’19 soybean oil stocks finished 3.0% above three year average seasonal levels, finishing higher for the first time in the past 11 months.  
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