U.S. Dairy Product Production Update – Oct ’20
Executive Summary
U.S. dairy product production figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Aug ’20. Highlights from the updated report include:
Cheese – Production Declines to a 13 Month Low Level, Finishes Down 2.1% YOY
U.S. cheese production declined to a 13 month low level during Aug ’20, finishing 2.1% below previous year levels. The YOY decline in cheese production was the first experienced throughout the past three months and the largest experienced throughout the past nine years on a percentage basis. Lower production experienced throughout the Western U.S. (-7.4%) more than offset increases in Atlantic U.S. (+1.3%) and Central U.S. (+2.0%) production.
Other-than-cheddar cheese production declined 3.2% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 0.5% YOY increase in cheddar cheese production. The YOY increase in cheddar cheese production was the sixth experienced throughout the past seven months.
’18-’19 annual cheese production increased 1.7% YOY, reaching the highest annual level on record, as a 2.6% YOY increase in other-than-cheddar cheese more than offset a 0.5% YOY decline in cheddar cheese production. Cheddar cheese production remained at the second highest annual level on record, however. ’19-’20 YTD cheese production has remained flat on a YOY basis heading into the final month of the production season.
Dry Whey – Production Declines YOY for the First Time in the Past Six Months, Finishes Down 5.4%
U.S. dry whey production declined 5.4% on a YOY basis during Aug ’20, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the first time in the past six months. Lower production experienced throughout the Central U.S. (-10.3%) and the Western U.S. (-5.7%) more than offset higher production experienced throughout the Atlantic U.S. (+2.1%).
Combined whey protein concentrate (WPC) and whey protein isolate (WPI) production finished higher on a YOY basis for the first time in the past 15 months during Aug ’20, finishing up 0.2%. The decline in dry whey production more than offset the increase in combined WPC and WPI production throughout Aug ’20, however, as combined production finished 3.3% lower YOY.
’18-’19 annual dry whey production declined 5.2% YOY, reaching a four year low level, while combined production of dry whey, WPC and WPI declined 4.0%, finishing at a three year low. ’19-’20 YTD dry whey production has rebounded by 3.2% on a YOY basis heading into the final month of the production season while combined production of dry whey, WPC and WPI has increased by 0.4%.
NFDM/SMP – Combined Production Increases YOY for the First Time in Three Months, up 5.4%
U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) production increased on a YOY basis for the first time in the past four months during Aug ’20, finishing up 8.8% and reaching a 56 year high seasonal level. Higher production experienced throughout the Western U.S. (+14.0%) and the Central U.S. (+9.6%) more than offset lower production experienced throughout the Atlantic U.S. (-6.9%).
Production of skim milk powder (SMP), which is more suited to the requirements of most global markets, finished lower on a YOY basis for the first time in the past four months during Aug ’20, declining by 2.0%. The increase in NFDM production more than offset the decline in SMP production throughout the month, as combined production of NFDM and SMP finished 5.4% above previous year levels. The YOY increase in combined production of NFDM and SMP was the first experienced throughout the past three months.
’18-’19 annual combined production of NFDM and SMP increased 0.1% YOY, reaching the highest annual level on record. SMP production increased 2.6% on a YOY basis throughout the period, more than offsetting a 0.7% YOY decline in NFDM production. ’19-’20 YTD combined production of NFDM and SMP has increased by an additional 4.5% on a YOY basis heading into the final month of the production season.
Overall, nonfat dry milk increased most significantly YOY on a percentage basis during Aug ’20, followed by butter production, while dry whey production declined most significantly on a percentage basis throughout the month.
- Aug ’20 U.S. butter production continued to decline seasonally but finished 7.8% higher on a YOY basis, remaining at a record high seasonal level for the second consecutive month.
- U.S. cheese production declined to a 13 month low level, finishing 2.1% below previous year levels, while dry whey production finished lower on a YOY basis for the first time in the past six months, down 5.4%.
- Combined production of U.S. nonfat dry milk and skim milk powder increased 5.4% on a YOY basis during Aug ’20, finishing higher for the first time in the past three months. Nonfat dry milk production increased 8.8% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 2.0% YOY decline in skim milk powder production. Nonfat dry milk production reached a 54 year seasonal high level for the month of August.
Cheese – Production Declines to a 13 Month Low Level, Finishes Down 2.1% YOY
U.S. cheese production declined to a 13 month low level during Aug ’20, finishing 2.1% below previous year levels. The YOY decline in cheese production was the first experienced throughout the past three months and the largest experienced throughout the past nine years on a percentage basis. Lower production experienced throughout the Western U.S. (-7.4%) more than offset increases in Atlantic U.S. (+1.3%) and Central U.S. (+2.0%) production.
Other-than-cheddar cheese production declined 3.2% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 0.5% YOY increase in cheddar cheese production. The YOY increase in cheddar cheese production was the sixth experienced throughout the past seven months.
’18-’19 annual cheese production increased 1.7% YOY, reaching the highest annual level on record, as a 2.6% YOY increase in other-than-cheddar cheese more than offset a 0.5% YOY decline in cheddar cheese production. Cheddar cheese production remained at the second highest annual level on record, however. ’19-’20 YTD cheese production has remained flat on a YOY basis heading into the final month of the production season.
Dry Whey – Production Declines YOY for the First Time in the Past Six Months, Finishes Down 5.4%
U.S. dry whey production declined 5.4% on a YOY basis during Aug ’20, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the first time in the past six months. Lower production experienced throughout the Central U.S. (-10.3%) and the Western U.S. (-5.7%) more than offset higher production experienced throughout the Atlantic U.S. (+2.1%).
Combined whey protein concentrate (WPC) and whey protein isolate (WPI) production finished higher on a YOY basis for the first time in the past 15 months during Aug ’20, finishing up 0.2%. The decline in dry whey production more than offset the increase in combined WPC and WPI production throughout Aug ’20, however, as combined production finished 3.3% lower YOY.
’18-’19 annual dry whey production declined 5.2% YOY, reaching a four year low level, while combined production of dry whey, WPC and WPI declined 4.0%, finishing at a three year low. ’19-’20 YTD dry whey production has rebounded by 3.2% on a YOY basis heading into the final month of the production season while combined production of dry whey, WPC and WPI has increased by 0.4%.
NFDM/SMP – Combined Production Increases YOY for the First Time in Three Months, up 5.4%
U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) production increased on a YOY basis for the first time in the past four months during Aug ’20, finishing up 8.8% and reaching a 56 year high seasonal level. Higher production experienced throughout the Western U.S. (+14.0%) and the Central U.S. (+9.6%) more than offset lower production experienced throughout the Atlantic U.S. (-6.9%).
Production of skim milk powder (SMP), which is more suited to the requirements of most global markets, finished lower on a YOY basis for the first time in the past four months during Aug ’20, declining by 2.0%. The increase in NFDM production more than offset the decline in SMP production throughout the month, as combined production of NFDM and SMP finished 5.4% above previous year levels. The YOY increase in combined production of NFDM and SMP was the first experienced throughout the past three months.
’18-’19 annual combined production of NFDM and SMP increased 0.1% YOY, reaching the highest annual level on record. SMP production increased 2.6% on a YOY basis throughout the period, more than offsetting a 0.7% YOY decline in NFDM production. ’19-’20 YTD combined production of NFDM and SMP has increased by an additional 4.5% on a YOY basis heading into the final month of the production season.
Overall, nonfat dry milk increased most significantly YOY on a percentage basis during Aug ’20, followed by butter production, while dry whey production declined most significantly on a percentage basis throughout the month.