U.S. Dairy Dry Product Stocks Update – Mar ’20
Executive Summary
U.S. dairy dry product stock figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Jan ’20. Highlights from the updated report include:
According to the USDA, Jan ’20 month-end dry whey stocks declined 7.8% month-over-month to an eight month low level while finishing 16.1% lower on a YOY basis. The YOY decline in dry whey stocks was the first experienced throughout the past five months. Dry whey stocks reached a five year low seasonal level, finishing 15.7% below three year average seasonal levels. The MOM decline in dry whey stocks of 5.6 million pounds, or 7.8%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average December – January seasonal build in dry whey stocks of 2.2 million pounds, or 4.4%. Dry whey production finished 4.4% higher on a YOY basis throughout Jan ’20, increasing for the sixth consecutive month.
On a days of usage basis, Jan ’20 U.S. dry whey stocks also finished lower YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of December, dry whey stocks on a days of usage basis finished down 13.5% YOY, declining on a YOY basis for the third time in the past four months.
Nonfat Dry Milk – Stocks Remain Lower YOY for the Ninth Consecutive Month, Finish Down 2.5%
Jan ’20 month-end nonfat dry milk (NFDM) stocks increased 12.8% month-over-month to a six month high level but remained 2.5% lower on a YOY basis, finishing at a three year seasonal low level. NFDM stocks have finished lower on a YOY basis over eight consecutive months through Jan ’20, although the most recent decline was the smallest experienced throughout the eight month period. The MOM increase in NFDM stocks of 31.7 million pounds, or 12.8%, was significantly greater than the ten year average December – January seasonal build in NFDM stocks of 3.0 million pounds, or 1.8%. NFDM production finished 0.3% higher on a YOY basis throughout Jan ‘20, increasing for the ninth consecutive month and reaching a 55 year high seasonal level.
On a days of usage basis, Jan ’20 U.S. NFDM stocks also finished lower YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of December, NFDM stocks on a days of usage basis finished down 3.2% YOY, declining on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive month.
Combined Dairy Product Stocks – Stocks Remain Lower YOY for the Fourth Consecutive Month
Jan ’20 combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and NFDM remained lower on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month, finishing down 0.3%. Combined dairy product stocks remained 4.8% above three year average seasonal levels, however, finishing at the second highest seasonal level on record.
- U.S. dry whey stocks declined contraseasonally throughout Jan ’20, finishing 16.1% lower on a YOY basis and reaching a five year seasonal low level.
- U.S. nonfat dry milk stocks increased seasonally throughout Jan ’20 but remained 2.5% lower on a YOY basis, reaching a three year low seasonal level.
According to the USDA, Jan ’20 month-end dry whey stocks declined 7.8% month-over-month to an eight month low level while finishing 16.1% lower on a YOY basis. The YOY decline in dry whey stocks was the first experienced throughout the past five months. Dry whey stocks reached a five year low seasonal level, finishing 15.7% below three year average seasonal levels. The MOM decline in dry whey stocks of 5.6 million pounds, or 7.8%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average December – January seasonal build in dry whey stocks of 2.2 million pounds, or 4.4%. Dry whey production finished 4.4% higher on a YOY basis throughout Jan ’20, increasing for the sixth consecutive month.
On a days of usage basis, Jan ’20 U.S. dry whey stocks also finished lower YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of December, dry whey stocks on a days of usage basis finished down 13.5% YOY, declining on a YOY basis for the third time in the past four months.
Nonfat Dry Milk – Stocks Remain Lower YOY for the Ninth Consecutive Month, Finish Down 2.5%
Jan ’20 month-end nonfat dry milk (NFDM) stocks increased 12.8% month-over-month to a six month high level but remained 2.5% lower on a YOY basis, finishing at a three year seasonal low level. NFDM stocks have finished lower on a YOY basis over eight consecutive months through Jan ’20, although the most recent decline was the smallest experienced throughout the eight month period. The MOM increase in NFDM stocks of 31.7 million pounds, or 12.8%, was significantly greater than the ten year average December – January seasonal build in NFDM stocks of 3.0 million pounds, or 1.8%. NFDM production finished 0.3% higher on a YOY basis throughout Jan ‘20, increasing for the ninth consecutive month and reaching a 55 year high seasonal level.
On a days of usage basis, Jan ’20 U.S. NFDM stocks also finished lower YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of December, NFDM stocks on a days of usage basis finished down 3.2% YOY, declining on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive month.
Combined Dairy Product Stocks – Stocks Remain Lower YOY for the Fourth Consecutive Month
Jan ’20 combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and NFDM remained lower on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month, finishing down 0.3%. Combined dairy product stocks remained 4.8% above three year average seasonal levels, however, finishing at the second highest seasonal level on record.