U.S. Dairy Dry Product Stocks Update – Feb ’20
Executive Summary
U.S. dairy dry product stock figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Dec ’19. Highlights from the updated report include:
Dec ’19 month-end dry whey stocks declined 8.4% MOM but remained 2.0% higher on a YOY basis, finishing at the third highest seasonal level on record. The YOY increase in dry whey stocks was the fourth experienced in a row. The MOM decline in dry whey stocks of 6.7 million pounds, or 8.4%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average November – December seasonal build in dry whey stocks of 4.8 million pounds, or 10.3%. Dry whey production finished 7.1% higher on a YOY basis throughout Dec ’19, increasing for the fifth consecutive month.
On a days of usage basis, Dec ’19 U.S. dry whey stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of December, dry whey stocks on a days of usage basis finished up 9.3% YOY, increasing on a YOY basis for the fourth time in the past five months.
Nonfat Dry Milk – Stocks Remain Significantly Lower on a YOY Basis, Finish Down 10.2%
Dec ’19 month-end nonfat dry milk (NFDM) stocks increased 11.6% MOM but remained 10.2% lower on a YOY basis, finishing at a three year seasonal low level. NFDM stocks have finished lower on a YOY basis over seven consecutive months through Dec ’19. The MOM increase in NFDM stocks of 25.8 million pounds, or 11.6%, was fairly consistent with the ten year average November – December seasonal build in NFDM stocks of 15.6 million pounds, or 11.7%. NFDM production finished 15.3% higher on a YOY basis throughout Dec ’19, increasing for the eighth consecutive month.
On a days of usage basis, Dec ’19 U.S. NFDM stocks also finished lower YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of December, NFDM stocks on a days of usage basis finished down 10.7% YOY, declining on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month.
Combined Dairy Product Stocks – Stocks Remain at a Three Year Seasonal Low, Finish Down 2.4% YOY
Dec ’19 combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and NFDM remained lower on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month, finishing down 2.4%. Combined dairy product stocks reached a three year seasonal low level but remained 1.6% above three year average seasonal figures.
- Dec ’19 U.S. dry whey stocks declined contraseasonally but remained 2.0% higher on a YOY basis, finishing at the third highest seasonal level on record.
- Dec ’19 U.S. nonfat dry milk stocks increased seasonally from the previous month but remained 10.2% lower on a YOY basis, reaching a three year low seasonal level.
Dec ’19 month-end dry whey stocks declined 8.4% MOM but remained 2.0% higher on a YOY basis, finishing at the third highest seasonal level on record. The YOY increase in dry whey stocks was the fourth experienced in a row. The MOM decline in dry whey stocks of 6.7 million pounds, or 8.4%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average November – December seasonal build in dry whey stocks of 4.8 million pounds, or 10.3%. Dry whey production finished 7.1% higher on a YOY basis throughout Dec ’19, increasing for the fifth consecutive month.
On a days of usage basis, Dec ’19 U.S. dry whey stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of December, dry whey stocks on a days of usage basis finished up 9.3% YOY, increasing on a YOY basis for the fourth time in the past five months.
Nonfat Dry Milk – Stocks Remain Significantly Lower on a YOY Basis, Finish Down 10.2%
Dec ’19 month-end nonfat dry milk (NFDM) stocks increased 11.6% MOM but remained 10.2% lower on a YOY basis, finishing at a three year seasonal low level. NFDM stocks have finished lower on a YOY basis over seven consecutive months through Dec ’19. The MOM increase in NFDM stocks of 25.8 million pounds, or 11.6%, was fairly consistent with the ten year average November – December seasonal build in NFDM stocks of 15.6 million pounds, or 11.7%. NFDM production finished 15.3% higher on a YOY basis throughout Dec ’19, increasing for the eighth consecutive month.
On a days of usage basis, Dec ’19 U.S. NFDM stocks also finished lower YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of December, NFDM stocks on a days of usage basis finished down 10.7% YOY, declining on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month.
Combined Dairy Product Stocks – Stocks Remain at a Three Year Seasonal Low, Finish Down 2.4% YOY
Dec ’19 combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and NFDM remained lower on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month, finishing down 2.4%. Combined dairy product stocks reached a three year seasonal low level but remained 1.6% above three year average seasonal figures.