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Grain & Oilseeds WASDE Update – Nov ’19

  • November 8, 2019
  • by Belinda Przybylski
Corn – U.S. and Global Ending Stocks Mixed vs. Private Estimates
  • ’19-’20 U.S. ending stocks of 1.910 billion bushels above expectations
  • ’19-’20 global ending stocks of 296.0 million MT below expectations
’19-’20 U.S. corn supply projections were reduced from the previous month on lower projected yields. Corn yields were reduced by 1.4 bushels/acre, or 0.8%, from the previous month estimate. ’19-’20 usage projections were reduced from the previous month on lower exports, feed usage and ethanol usage, however, offsetting a large percentage of the reduction in projected supply. ’19-’20 projected U.S. corn ending stocks of 1.910 billion bushels, or 50.1 days of use, finished 1.0% below the previous month estimate but remained 5.1% above expectations. The ’19-’20 global corn ending stock projection finished 2.2% below the previous month estimate and 1.4% below expectations. Lower projected beginning stocks within Brazil, coupled with reductions in U.S. and Mexican production estimates, accounted for the majority of the decline in the global corn ending stocks projection. Soybeans – U.S. and Global Ending Stocks Above Private Estimates
  • ’19-’20 U.S. ending stocks of 475 million bushels significantly above expectations
  • ’19-’20 global ending stocks of 95.4 million MT above expectations
’19-’20 U.S. soybean supply projections were unchanged from the previous month while usage projections were reduced slightly on lower food, seed & industrial usage. ’19-’20 projected U.S. soybean ending stocks of 475 million bushels, or 43.3 days of use, finished 3.3% above the previous month estimate and 11.0% above expectations. The ’19-’20 global soybean ending stock projection finished 0.2% above the previous month estimate and 1.7% above expectations. Projected Brazilian soybean ending stocks increased most significantly from the previous month as beginning stocks estimates were raised. ’19-’20 U.S. soybean meal ending stocks were unchanged from the previous month as a reduction in projected supply was more than offset by a reduction in projected exports. Globally, ’19-’20 soybean meal ending stocks were reduced from the previous month primarily on lower projected production within India. ’19-’20 U.S. soybean oil ending stocks were reduced from the previous month on lower projected production while ’19-’20 global soybean oil ending stocks were reduced from the previous month primarily on lower projected production within India. Wheat – U.S. and Global Ending Stocks Mixed vs. Private Estimates
  • ’19-’20 U.S. ending stocks of 1.014 billion bushels below expectations
  • ’19-’20 global ending stocks of 288.3 million MT slightly above expectations
’19-’20 U.S. wheat supply projections were reduced from the previous month as lower projected harvested acres more than offset slightly higher projected yields. ’19-’20 usage projections were slightly reduced from the previous month on lower food, seed & industrial usage. ’19-’20 projected U.S. wheat ending stocks of 1.014 billion bushels, or 175.7 days of use, finished 2.8% below the previous month estimate and 2.0% below expectations. The ’19-’20 global wheat ending stock projection finished 0.2% above the previous month estimate and 0.4% above expectations. Ending Stocks vs. Expectations Summary Overall, ’19-’20 projected U.S. soybean ending stocks finished most significantly above expectations, while U.S. corn stocks, global soybean stocks and global wheat stocks also finished above expectations. Domestic wheat ending stock projections finished most significantly below expectations while global corn stocks also finished lower.  
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