U.S. Dairy Product Production Update – Sep ’15
Butter – YOY Production Declines Widespread Across U.S., Total Production Down 3.2% According to USDA, Jul ’15 U.S. butter production of 133.3 million pounds continues to decline seasonally MOM on a daily average basis while also declining 3.2% YOY. YOY declines in butter production were widespread across the U.S., declining by 1.9% in the Western U.S., 4.3% in the Atlantic U.S. and 4.7% in the Central U.S. Butter production was particularly weak in California, declining 7.6% YOY in Jul ’15. ’14-’15 YTD butter production is down 0.8% YOY through the first ten months of the production season. Cheese – Production Increases 3.1% YOY, Reaches New Record High for the Month of July Jul ’15 total cheese production of 988.4 million pounds increased YOY for the 28th consecutive month, finishing 3.1% higher than the previous year. Jun ’15 cheese production reached a new record high for the month of July and was the seventh largest production month ever experienced on a daily average basis. Production declined slightly MOM, finishing down 7.4 million lbs, or 0.8%, on a daily average basis, although the declines were significantly less than the ten year average June – July seasonal decline of 36.6 million lbs, or 4.3%. Cheddar cheese production was particularly strong on a YOY basis, with monthly cheddar production of 282.4 million pounds finishing up 4.7%. ’14-’15 YTD cheese production is up 2.5% YOY through the first ten months of the production season with cheddar cheese production also up 2.5% over the same period. The 2.5% increase in annual cheese production would be fairly consistent with the ten year average annual growth rate of 2.6%. Dry Whey –Production Finishes Higher YOY for Sixth Time in Past Seven Months Consistent with the continued growth in cheese production, Jul ’15 U.S. dry whey production increased YOY for the sixth time in the past seven months. Dry whey production of 80.7 million pounds finished 9.8% above the previous year, despite production declining seasonally by 8.2% MOM on a daily average basis. Combined whey protein concentrate (WPC) and whey protein isolate (WPI) production remained lower on a YOY basis, declining by 4.6% YOY. Combined WPC and WPI production increased by 18.3% YOY throughout the ’13-’14 production season but has dropped below last year’s levels throughout the first ten months of the ’14-’15 production season, down 2.7% YTD. ’14-’15 YTD dry whey production is up 5.3% YOY, with total combined dry whey, WPC and WPI production up 1.9% YOY through July. NFDM/SMP – Combined Production Declines YOY for Third Consecutive Month Jul ’15 U.S. NFDM production of 155.1 million pounds declined YOY for the time in 18 months, finishing down 6.9%. NFDM production also declined seasonally MOM on a daily average basis, falling by 9.1%. SMP, which is more suited to the requirements of most global markets, experienced a YOY increase for the first time in 14 months, with production of 35.1 million pounds finishing 23.0% higher than the previous year. Overall, Jul ’15 combined production of NFDM and SMP declined YOY for the third consecutive month, falling 2.5%. The past three YOY declines in combined production were for the first experienced in the past 17 months. ’14-’15 YTD combined U.S. NFDM and SMP production remains up 5.1% through the first ten months of the production season. See the table below for a summary of key U.S. dairy product production in Jul ’15.