EIA Drilling Productivity Report Update – Aug ’15
According to the EIA’s August Drilling Productivity Report, U.S. oil output is expected to continue to decline through Sep ’15. The Drilling Productivity Report uses recent data on the total number of drilling rigs in operation, estimates of drilling productivity, and estimated changes in production from existing wells to provide estimated changes in oil production for the seven key regions shown below. The seven regions analyzed have accounted for 95% of domestic oil production growth from 2011-2013. Aug ’15 shale production was revised higher by approximately 5,000 barrels per day (bpd), or 0.1%, but is expected to remain approximately 89,000 bpd, or 1.6%, below Jul ’15 production levels. Sep ’15 production is expected to decline an additional 92,000 bpd, or 1.7%, from the Aug ’15 revised production levels to 5.27 million bpd, a ten month low. The projected MOM declines in oil production from May ’15 – Sep ’15 have been the largest experienced in over four years, with the projected Sep ’15 decline being the largest experienced since the report was originated in 2007. Projected MOM declines in oil production continue to be led by the Eagle Ford, Bakken and Niobrara regions. The aforementioned regions are expected to experience MOM production declines of 3.6%, 2.3% and 4.3%, respectively in Sep ’15. Growth is expected to continue within the Permian and Marcellus regions, with projected production up 0.4% and 1.6% MOM, respectively, in Sep ’15.