EIA Drilling Productivity Report Update – Apr ’15
According to the EIA’s April Drilling Productivity Report, U.S. oil output is expected to begin declining for the first time in over four years. The Drilling Productivity Report uses recent data on the total number of drilling rigs in operation, estimates of drilling productivity, and estimated changes in production from existing wells to provide estimated changes in oil production for the seven key regions shown below. The seven regions analyzed have accounted for 95% of domestic oil production growth during 2011-2013. May ’15 projected production of 5.56 million barrels per day (bpd) is expected to decline approximately 56,600 bpd, or 1.0%, from Apr ’15 production levels. Apr ’15 shale production was also revised lower, and is expected to decline by 2,100 bpd. The projected MOM declines in oil production throughout Apr – May ’15 would be the first experienced since Feb ’11, with the projected May ’15 decline being the largest since the report was originated in 2007. Projected MOM declines in oil production were led by the Eagle Ford, Bakken and Niobrara regions. The aforementioned regions are expected to experience MOM production declines of 1.9%, 1.7% and 3.4%, respectively. Growth is expected to continue within the Permian region, with projected production up 0.5% MOM in May ’15.