U.S. Dairy Products Production Update – Feb ’15
Butter – YOY Production Gain Reaches 16 Month High on Percentage Basis According to USDA, Dec ’14 U.S. butter production of 167.0 million pounds increased 3.3% YOY, the largest percentage gain in 16 months. Butter production also increased 13.6% MOM on a daily average basis, consistent with the five year average November – December production gain of the same percentage. In addition, Nov ’14 butter production was revised 4.9% higher from the figure originally reported in the previous monthly report. The recent uptick in butter production, coupled with weak international demand for higher priced domestic butter throughout the second half of 2014, has resulted in a gradual reduction in the domestic butter stock deficit. Domestic butter stocks remained down 12.3% in Dec ’14, however the deficit was the smallest on a percentage basis in the past 13 months. ’14-’15 YTD butter production is up 0.7% through the first quarter of the production season. Cheese – Production Sets New Monthly Record High Dec ’14 total cheese production increased 2.5% YOY and 2.1% MOM on a daily average basis to a new monthly record high of 1.00 billion pounds. The monthly YOY increase was the 21st in a row while the MOM gain outpaced the five year average November – December production gain of 0.6%. Cheddar cheese production of 281.1 million pounds was particularly strong, increasing 2.7% YOY and 5.2% MOM on a daily average basis. ’14-’15 YTD cheese production is up 2.8% through the first quarter of the production season with cheddar cheese production up 2.0% over the same period. Dry Products – Dry Whey Production Declines, Combined SMP/NFDM Production Increases Dec ’14 U.S. dry whey production of 76.0 million pounds increased seasonally by 5.1% MOM but continued to decline on a YOY basis, down 9.9%. The MOM production gain was significantly below the five year average November – December production gain of 9.0% while the YOY decline in production was the 18th in the last 20 months. Manufacturers have continued to shift to higher-value whey protein products including whey protein concentrates (WPC) and whey protein isolates (WPI) over much of the previous production season, with production of WPC and WPI finishing up 20.4% and 6.0%, respectively. ’14-’15 YTD combined WPC and WPI production is up 5.6% YOY through the first quarter of the production season while dry whey production is down 6.0% over the same period. Dec ’14 U.S. NFDM production increased YOY for the eighth consecutive month, finishing up 29.9%. NFDM production also increased 4.3% MOM on a daily average basis to a new December record of 163.1 million lbs. Dec ’14 SMP production of 43.2 million lbs declined YOY for the seventh consecutive month, falling 25.7%. SMP production did however increase by 36.4% MOM on a daily average basis. SMP, which is more suited to the requirements of most global markets, has experienced YOY production declines as powder exports have begun to experience relative weakness. Powder exports have declined by 17.7% YOY from Aug ’14 – Nov ’14 after increasing for 15 of the 16 months. Dec ’14 combined production of NFDM and SMP increased 12.3% YOY, the tenth consecutive monthly increase in production. ’14-’15 YTD combined U.S. NFDM and SMP production is up 15.8% through the first quarter of the production season. See the table below for a summary of key U.S. dairy product production in Dec ’14.