U.S. Dairy Products Production Update – Jan ’15
Butter – Production Continues to Decline on YOY Basis According to USDA, Nov ’14 U.S. butter production declined 4.7% YOY and 2.6% MOM on a daily average basis. Butter production typically increases seasonally from October – November, increasing at an average of 6.9% on a daily average basis over the past five years. In addition, Oct ’14 butter production was revised 2.9% lower from the figure originally reported in the previous report. Overall butter production has declined by 3.0% YOY from Aug ’14 – Nov ’14, resulting in lower domestic butter stocks despite reduced international demand for U.S. butter. Although U.S. butter prices have subsided since peaking in Sep ’14, prices remain at a premium to international prices, resulting in a continued decline in U.S. butterfat exports. ’13-’14 annual butter production finished 2.4% lower than the previous year. Cheese – Production Increases YOY for 20th Consecutive Month, Sets New November Record U.S. cheese production increased YOY for the 20th consecutive month as Nov ’14 production registered a 2.9% YOY gain. Cheese production declined slightly MOM on a daily average basis, down 0.1%, however production set a new November record and was the second largest figure ever recorded on a daily average basis. Cheddar cheese production declined 1.1% MOM on a daily average basis but increased 2.8% YOY. ’13-’14 annual total cheese production finished 2.6% higher than the previous year with cheddar cheese production finishing 1.2% higher. Dry Products – Dry Whey Production Declines, Combined SMP/NFDM Production Increases Nov ’14 U.S. dry whey production increased seasonally by 3.1% MOM, but continued to decline on a YOY basis, down 5.5%. The YOY decline in whey production was the 17th in the last 19 months as manufacturers continue to shift to higher-value whey protein products including whey protein concentrates (WPC) and whey protein isolates (WPI). ’13-’14 annual U.S. dry whey production finished down 9.0%, however WPC and WPI production finished up 20.4% and 6.0%, respectively. Nov ’14 U.S. NFDM production increased YOY for the seventh month in a row, up 48.9% and 15.2% MOM on a daily average basis to a new November record of 150.7 million lbs. Nov ’14 SMP production of 30.6 million lbs declined YOY for the sixth month in a row, falling 45.5% and 27.1% MOM on a daily average basis. SMP, which is more suited to the requirements of most global markets, has experienced YOY production declines as powder exports have begun to experience relative weakness. Powder exports fell 24.6% YOY in Oct ’14, the third consecutive YOY decline after increasing for 15 of the 16 months leading up to Aug ’14. Nov ’14 combined production of NFDM and SMP increased 15.2% YOY, the ninth consecutive monthly increase in production. ’13-’14 annual U.S. NFDM and SMP production finished higher by 5.8% and 1.9%, respectively, with combined production finishing 4.8% higher. See the table below for a summary of key U.S. dairy product production in Nov ’14.