U.S. Dairy Products Production Update – Dec ’14
Butter – Production Sets New October Record, up 1.5% YOY According to USDA, Oct ’14 U.S. butter production increased 1.5% YOY and 10.1% MOM on a daily average basis to 148.1 million lbs, setting a new October record. Butter production typically increases seasonally from Sep – Oct, with a five year average Sep – Oct MOM gain of 6.2%. Despite the YOY gain, lower recent production has resulted in a continued decline in butter stocks and a subsequent increase in domestic butter prices. Oct ’14 butter stocks ended 24.0% below the previous year’s level and the Oct ’14 announced butter price of $2.53 was 63.4% higher than October of last year. Butter prices have subsided since peaking in Sep ’14, but remain at a significant premium to international prices. ’13-’14 YTD butter production finished 2.4% lower than the previous year. Cheese – Production Increases for 19th Straight Month, Sets New October Record U.S. cheese production increased YOY for the 19th straight month as Oct ’14 production registered a 2.3% YOY gain. Cheese production also increased MOM, up 0.2% on a daily average basis, to a new October record of 976.8 million lbs. Cheddar cheese production also set a new October record of 270.9 million lbs, and was up 0.8% YOY and 2.3% MOM on a daily average basis. ’13-’14 YTD total cheese production finished 2.6% higher than the previous year with cheddar cheese production finishing 1.2% higher. Dry Products – Dry Whey Production Declines, Combined SMP/NFDM Production Increases Oct ’14 U.S. dry whey production declined 1.2% YOY and 3.4% MOM on a daily average basis. The YOY decline in whey production was the 16th in the last 18 months as manufacturers continue to shift to higher-value whey protein products including whey protein concentrates (WPC) and whey protein isolates (WPI). ’13-’14 YTD U.S. dry whey production finished down 9.0%, however YTD WPC and WPI production finished up 20.4% and 6.0%, respectively. Dry whey stocks declined seasonally by 6.3% MOM, or 3.7 million lbs, to a total of 54.9 million lbs. Oct ’14 dry whey stocks were up 0.5% YOY, the first YOY gain in ten months. Stocks were 24.2% higher than the five year average October dry whey stocks. Oct ’14 U.S. NFDM production increased YOY for the sixth month in a row, up 54.1% and 11.4% MOM on a daily average basis to a new October record of 132.3 million lbs. Oct ’14 SMP production of 41.1 million lbs declined YOY for the fifth month in a row, falling 34.1% and 2.7% MOM on a daily average basis. SMP, which is more suited to the requirements of most global markets, has experienced YOY production declines as powder exports have begun to experience relative weakness. Powder exports fell 29.6% YOY in Sep ’14, the largest YOY percentage decline in nearly three years. Oct ’14 combined production of NFDM and SMP increased 17.0% YOY, the eighth consecutive monthly increase in production. ’13-’14 YTD U.S. NFDM and SMP production finished higher by 5.8% and 1.9%, respectively, with combined production finishing 4.8% higher. NFDM stocks increased by 9.7% MOM, or 17.3 million lbs, to a total of 195.3 million lbs. The Sep – Oct monthly increase in NFDM stocks was the first experienced in six years and the largest on record. Oct ’14 NFDM stocks were up 75.7% YOY which was the largest YOY percentage gain in 14 months. Stocks were 70.4% higher than the five year average October NFDM stocks. See the table below for a summary of key U.S. dairy product production in Oct ’14.