EU-28 Milk Production Remains Strong – Nov ’14
According to Eurostat, Sep ’14 EU-28 milk production continued the recent trend of production growth, increasing 4.7% YOY. Monthly production of 11.8 million MT (26.0 billion lbs) set a new record high for September, although production declined 1.5% MOM on a daily average basis as milk production continues to seasonally decline until lows are typically reached in November. Absolute monthly YOY production gains were led by France (+132,381 MT), the U.K. (+87,200 MT) and Germany (+73,500 MT). Malta and Cyprus were the only member states with lower YOY production, with production declining 11.8% and 1.1%, respectively. The EU-28 has experienced 15 consecutive months of YOY monthly production gains. Strong production has been attributed to high milk prices, favorable weather, expanding dairy herds and more than adequate feed and forage supplies. According to USDA AMS, farmgate milk prices have declined of late, but are not to a level to prompt producers to lower milk production or reduce herd sizes. Milk prices received by farmers are maintaining a fair margin and encourage milk production. ’14-’15 YTD EU-28 production is up 5.0% through the first half of the production season. Going forward, EU-28 milk production may be affected by the Russian ban of EU dairy exports announced in early August. According to USDA, in 2013 Russia accounted for 33% of EU cheese exports, 25% of EU butter exports, and 27% of EU AMF exports with total 2013 EU exports into Russia estimated to equal 1.5% of EU’s milk production. According to USDA AMS, undetermined volumes of Eastern European raw milk and cream are finding their way to Belarus manufacturing facilities, with the assumption that some of the manufactured dairy products from these shipments are being exported to Russia. Baltic States’ producers, however, are struggling to find new markets for their dairy products that were previously exported to Russia prior to the import embargo.