U.S. Dairy Products Production Update – Sep ’14
Butter – Jul ’14 Production up 2.6% YOY, YTD Production Remains Down 2.4% According to USDA, Jul ’14 U.S. butter production increased 2.6% YOY, the largest YOY increase in the last eleven months. ’13-’14 YTD butter production remains 2.4% lower than the previous year through the first ten months of the production season. Lower production has resulted in a significant decline in butter stocks and a subsequent increase in domestic butter prices. Jul ’14 butter stocks ended 42.4% below the previous year’s level and the Aug ’14 announced butter price of $2.52 was 77.7% above August of last year. Cheese – YOY Production Growth Continues, Cheddar Production up 9.2% YOY U.S. cheese production increased YOY for the 16th straight month as Jul ’14 production registered a 7.0% YOY gain, the largest percentage gain in over nine years. Cheddar cheese was particularly strong, increasing 9.2% YOY. The YOY gain in cheddar cheese production was the largest in over nine and a half years and the fourth YOY increase in a row after five months of YOY declines. Cheddar cheese production was led by the Central Region, which increased production by 20.8% YOY. ’13-’14 YTD total cheese production is 2.5% higher than the previous year through the first ten months of the production season. Dry Products – Dry Whey Production Declines, Combined SMP/NFDM Production Increases U.S. dry whey production declined 7.1% YOY and 9.9% MOM on a daily average basis. The YOY decline in whey production was the 13th in the last 15 months as manufacturers continue to shift to higher-value whey protein products including whey protein concentrates (WPC) and whey protein isolates (WPI). ’13-’14 YTD U.S. dry whey production is down 9.4%, however YTD WPC and WPI production are up 23.3% and 11.8%, respectively. Despite the decrease in dry whey production, dry whey stocks increased 0.7 million lbs to a total of 61.8 million lbs. Jul ’14 dry whey stocks remain down 8.8% YOY, although stocks were 12.0% higher than the five year average July dry whey stocks. The shift to greater NFDM production continued as Jul ’14 U.S. NFDM production increased 42.7% YOY while SMP production declined 49.0% YOY. SMP, which is more suited to the requirements of most global markets, declined YOY for the fourth time in six months after 18 months of YOY increases as U.S. powder prices continue to gain vs. international prices. Combined production of NFDM and SMP increased YOY for the fifth straight month, with production 14.1% higher than the previous year. The shift to higher NFDM production has led to all-time record high NFDM stocks, as Jul ’14 stocks of 250.4 million lbs increased 9.4% YOY. The record Jul ’14 NFDM stocks were up 21.3% YOY and 39.5% over the five year average July NFDM stocks. See the table below for a summary of key U.S. dairy product production in Jul ’14.