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U.S. Commercial Disappearance Update – Feb ’15

  • February 26, 2015
  • by wbabler
All Milk – YOY Disappearance Increases on Milk-Fat and Skim-Solids Bases According to USDA, Dec ’14 U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products increased YOY for the first time in three months on both a milk-fat and skim-solids basis, up 5.2% and 3.3%, respectively. Domestic demand continued to outpace international demand, finishing up 7.7% YOY on a milk-fat basis and 4.4% YOY on a skim-solids basis. The 7.7% YOY increase in domestic demand on a milk-fat basis was a new ten year high. ’14-’15 YTD commercial disappearance for milk used in all products is up 0.4% YOY on a milk-fat basis and 0.3% YOY on a skim-solids basis through the first quarter of the production season. Monthly US All Milk Commercial Disappearance - Feb Monthly US All Milk Commercial Disappearance2 - Feb Butter –Disappearance Increases Slightly YOY Despite Continued Weak International Demand Dec ’14 U.S. butter commercial disappearance increased YOY for the first time in five months, finishing 0.6% higher. The YOY gain was driven by strong domestic demand, which increased by 10.4% YOY. International demand remained weak, however, finishing down 77.3%. U.S. butterfat exports have declined YOY for eight consecutive months as U.S. butter prices have traded at significant premiums to international prices. ’14-’15 YTD U.S. butter commercial disappearance is down 11.2% YOY through the first quarter of the production season, with domestic demand down 4.0% and international demand down 77.7% over the period. Monthly US Butter Commercial Disappearance - Feb Cheese – Disappearance Sets New Monthly Record High Dec ’14 U.S. cheese commercial disappearance increased 4.9% YOY and 4.1% MOM on a daily average basis to the largest monthly figure on record. Monthly cheese disappearance finished above one billion lbs for the first time, and was 0.7% higher than the previous monthly record disappearance reached in Oct ’13. Dec ’14 U.S. American cheese commercial disappearance increased 4.9% YOY and 6.0% MOM on a daily average basis while U.S. other-than-American cheese commercial disappearance increased 4.9% YOY and 3.0% MOM on a daily average basis. Domestic cheese demand was particularly strong, increasing 6.2% while export volumes declined for the third consecutive month, falling 11.8%. ’14-’15 YTD U.S. cheese commercial disappearance is up 1.4% YOY through the first quarter of the production season. Monthly US Cheese Commercial Disappearance - Feb NFDM/SMP –Commercial Disappearance up 9.8% YOY to New December Record Dec ’14 U.S. NFDM/SMP commercial disappearance of 175.2 million lbs increased 9.8% YOY and 11.4% MOM on a daily average basis to the largest December figure on record. U.S. NFDM/SMP domestic commercial disappearance was particularly strong, increasing YOY for the fifth consecutive month and finishing 57.2% higher than last year. Continued weak international demand offset a portion of the domestic gains, falling 22.8% YOY. U.S. NFDM/SMP exports have declined YOY for five consecutive months. ’14-’15 YTD U.S. NFDM/SMP commercial disappearance remains down 0.6% YOY through the first quarter of the production season. Monthly US NFDM-SMP Commercial Disappearance - Feb Fluid Milk Sales – YOY Sales Continue to Decline Dec ’14 U.S. fluid milk sales of 4.37 billion pounds continued to decline on a YOY basis, falling 1.2%. Monthly fluid milk sales have declined YOY for 12 consecutive months at an average rate of 3.0% over the period. YOY declines in fluid milk sales are on top of historically weak demand last production season. ’13-’14 annual fluid milk sales declined 2.4% YOY, which was the largest annual YOY decline on record. ’14-’15 YTD fluid milk sales are down 3.4% YOY through the first quarter of the production season. Monthly US Fluid Milk Sales - Feb See the table below for a summary of key Dec ’14 U.S. dairy commercial disappearance figures in addition to the Dec ’14 fluid milk sales figure. US Commerical Disappearance Table - Feb
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