EU-28 Milk Production Update – Jun ’20
Executive Summary
EU-28 milk production figures provided by Eurostat were recently updated with values spanning through Apr ’20. Highlights from the updated report include:
The Apr ’20 YOY decline in EU-28 milk production volumes was the first experienced throughout the past 15 months. 2020 YTD EU-28 milk production volumes remain 0.8% above previous year levels throughout the first third of the calendar year. USDA is projecting EU-28 milk production volumes will remain flat throughout the 2020 calendar year as increasing milk yields due to high-quality genetics and better herd management will offset declining dairy cow herd inventories.
Apr ’20 YOY declines in production on an absolute basis were led by France, followed by Italy and the United Kingdom, while YOY increases in production on an absolute basis were led by Ireland, followed by the Netherlands and Spain. France, which typically exports over a third of total production, has experienced disruptions due to increased health controls at borders and a lack of truck drivers. Italy enforced nationwide travel restrictions in mid-March due to COVID-19 while the U.K. dairy industry continues to deal with uncertainty throughout the Brexit transition period.
Ireland was less affected by COVID-19 related disruptions as they occurred before the annual upswing in milk production. Ireland has a large cyclical component to production volumes as the animals are mostly grass fed, with production volumes declining to seasonal low levels throughout the month of January and not rebounding to seasonal peak levels until the month of May.
YOY declines in production on a percentage basis were led by Croatia (-4.2%), followed by Romania (-4.1%) and Latvia (-2.9%), while increases in production on a percentage basis were most significant within Cyprus (+11.8%), followed by Luxembourg (+7.8%) and the Czech Republic (+3.8%).
Six of the top ten milk producing member states experienced YOY increases in milk production during Apr ’20 however production within the top ten milk producing member states declined by a weighted average of 0.2% throughout the month. The top ten EU-28 milk producing member states accounted for over 85% of the total EU-28 milk production experienced throughout the month. Overall, 18 of the 28 member states experienced YOY increases in production volumes during Apr ’20.
EU-28 beef & dairy cow slaughter finished lower on a YOY basis for the eighth time in the past ten months during Mar ’20 when normalizing for slaughter days, declining by 1.3% and reaching a four year seasonal low level. YOY declines in beef & dairy cow slaughter were most significant within France, followed by Romania and Poland.
’19-’20 annual EU-28 bovine slaughter declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past six years, finishing down 1.8% and reaching a four year low level. USDA expects the EU-28 dairy cow herd to decline 1.2% throughout the 2020 calendar year due to feed shortages stemming from the recent droughts but noted additional culling rates, coupled with improved genetics, are expected to have a positive impact on future per cow productivity as lower producing animals are culled.
- EU-28 milk production declined slightly on a YOY basis throughout Apr ’20 but remained within 0.1% of the record high seasonal level experienced throughout the previous year. The YOY decline in EU-28 milk production volumes was the first experienced throughout the past 15 months.
- Apr ’20 YOY declines in milk production were led by France, followed by Italy and the United Kingdom, while YOY increases in milk production were led by Ireland, followed by the Netherlands and Spain. Overall, 18 of the 28 member states experienced YOY increases in milk production throughout the month, despite total production declining slightly throughout the month.
- EU-28 beef & dairy cow slaughter rates finished lower on a YOY basis for the eighth time in the past ten months during Mar ’20 when normalizing for slaughter days, declining by 1.3% and reaching a four year seasonal low level.
The Apr ’20 YOY decline in EU-28 milk production volumes was the first experienced throughout the past 15 months. 2020 YTD EU-28 milk production volumes remain 0.8% above previous year levels throughout the first third of the calendar year. USDA is projecting EU-28 milk production volumes will remain flat throughout the 2020 calendar year as increasing milk yields due to high-quality genetics and better herd management will offset declining dairy cow herd inventories.
Apr ’20 YOY declines in production on an absolute basis were led by France, followed by Italy and the United Kingdom, while YOY increases in production on an absolute basis were led by Ireland, followed by the Netherlands and Spain. France, which typically exports over a third of total production, has experienced disruptions due to increased health controls at borders and a lack of truck drivers. Italy enforced nationwide travel restrictions in mid-March due to COVID-19 while the U.K. dairy industry continues to deal with uncertainty throughout the Brexit transition period.
Ireland was less affected by COVID-19 related disruptions as they occurred before the annual upswing in milk production. Ireland has a large cyclical component to production volumes as the animals are mostly grass fed, with production volumes declining to seasonal low levels throughout the month of January and not rebounding to seasonal peak levels until the month of May.
YOY declines in production on a percentage basis were led by Croatia (-4.2%), followed by Romania (-4.1%) and Latvia (-2.9%), while increases in production on a percentage basis were most significant within Cyprus (+11.8%), followed by Luxembourg (+7.8%) and the Czech Republic (+3.8%).
Six of the top ten milk producing member states experienced YOY increases in milk production during Apr ’20 however production within the top ten milk producing member states declined by a weighted average of 0.2% throughout the month. The top ten EU-28 milk producing member states accounted for over 85% of the total EU-28 milk production experienced throughout the month. Overall, 18 of the 28 member states experienced YOY increases in production volumes during Apr ’20.
EU-28 beef & dairy cow slaughter finished lower on a YOY basis for the eighth time in the past ten months during Mar ’20 when normalizing for slaughter days, declining by 1.3% and reaching a four year seasonal low level. YOY declines in beef & dairy cow slaughter were most significant within France, followed by Romania and Poland.
’19-’20 annual EU-28 bovine slaughter declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past six years, finishing down 1.8% and reaching a four year low level. USDA expects the EU-28 dairy cow herd to decline 1.2% throughout the 2020 calendar year due to feed shortages stemming from the recent droughts but noted additional culling rates, coupled with improved genetics, are expected to have a positive impact on future per cow productivity as lower producing animals are culled.