Executive Summary

U.S. dairy cow slaughter figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Mar ’22. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. dairy cow slaughter rates finished 1.7% below previous year levels throughout Mar ’22 when normalizing for slaughter days, reaching a four year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in dairy cow slaughter rates was the fourth experienced throughout the past five months.
• YOY declines in dairy cow slaughter rates experienced throughout Mar ’22 were led by Standard Federal Region 5 (Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio and Wisconsin).
• Recent declines in slaughter rates contributed to the U.S. milk cow herd rebounding to a six month high level throughout Mar ’22.

Additional Report Details

According to the USDA, Mar ’22 U.S. dairy cow slaughter rates declined seasonally from the 25 month high level experienced throughout the previous month when normalizing for slaughter days while finishing 1.7% below previous year levels. Dairy cow slaughter rates reached a four year low seasonal level for the month of March. The month-over-month decline in slaughter rates of 1.9% was largely consistent with the ten year average February – March seasonal decline of 1.5%.

The Mar ’22 YOY decline in dairy cow slaughter rates was the fourth experienced throughout the past five months. Dairy cow slaughter rates have finished above previous year levels over five consecutive months through Oct ’21, prior to declining over more recent months. ’20-’21 annual U.S. dairy cow slaughter rates finished 1.0% below previous year levels, reaching a four year low annual level. ’21-’22 YTD slaughter rates have declined by an additional 1.4% on a YOY basis throughout the first half of the production season and are on pace to reach a five year low level.

Month-over-month declines in dairy cow slaughter rates were most significant throughout Standard Federal Region 9 (Arizona, California, Hawaii and Nevada), followed by Standard Federal Region 3 (Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Virginia and West Virginia).

YOY declines in dairy cow slaughter were led by Standard Federal Region 5 (Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio and Wisconsin), while increases were largest throughout Standard Federal Region 10 (Alaska, Idaho, Oregon and Washington).

The U.S. milk cow herd expanded significantly throughout the first half of 2021, reaching a 26 year high level. The U.S. milk cow herd declined throughout the second half of 2021 but rebounded to a six month high level throughout Mar ’22, aided by the recent declines in slaughter rates.

2019 annual dairy cow slaughter rates increased 2.3% on a YOY basis, reaching a 33 year high level and a 35 year high level on a percentage of the total dairy cow herd basis. Dairy cow slaughter rates declined 5.6% on a YOY basis throughout 2020 prior to rebounding by 0.2% throughout 2021.