Executive Summary

U.S. cattle on feed figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through the end of Nov ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market as of Dec 1^st declined 0.4% on a YOY basis, remaining below previous year levels for the sixth consecutive month. The cattle on feed supply finished slightly below average analyst expectations.
• Placements in feedlots increased 3.6% on a YOY basis throughout Nov ’21, finishing largely consistent with average analyst expectations. A 7.1% YOY increase in placements weighing less than 700 pounds more than offset a 0.2% YOY decline in placements weighing more than 700 pounds throughout the month.
• Marketings of fed cattle increased 5.3% on a YOY basis throughout Nov ’21, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in marketings was slightly larger than average analyst expectations.

Additional Report Details

According to the USDA, Dec 1^st cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the U.S. for feedlots with capacity of a thousand head or more increased seasonally to a nine month high level but remained 0.4% below previous year levels, reaching a three year low seasonal level for the month of November. The YOY decline in the cattle on feed supply was the sixth experienced in a row. The cattle on feed supply finished slightly below average analyst expectations of a level unchanged from previous year figures.

Nov ’21 placements in feedlots declined seasonally to a four month low level but remained 3.6% above previous year levels. The 3.6% YOY increase in placements was largely consistent with average analyst expectations of a 3.4% increase. YOY increases in placements were led by those weighing 600 pounds or less (+8.7%), followed by placements weighing 600-699 pounds (+5.4%) and 700-799 pounds (+1.3%). Placements weighing 800 pounds or more declined by 1.3% on a YOY basis throughout the month.

Total placements in feedlots declined 0.9% on a YOY basis throughout the ’19-’20 production season, reaching a four year low level. ’20-’21 annual placements rebounded by 0.2% on a YOY basis.

Cattle placements weighing under 700 pounds increased 7.1% on a YOY basis during Nov ’21, finishing above previous year levels for the second consecutive month. Cattle placements weighing under 700 pounds finished 0.2% above previous year levels throughout the ’19-’20 production season however ’20-’21 annual placements weighing under 700 pounds declined by 2.6% on a YOY basis, reaching a four year low level.

Cattle placements weighing 700 pounds or more declined 0.2% on a YOY basis during Nov ’21, reaching a five year low seasonal level. Cattle placements weighing 700 pounds or more declined 1.7% on a YOY basis throughout the ’19-’20 production season however ’20-’21 annual placements weighing 700 pounds or more rebounded by 2.1% on a YOY basis.

Marketings of fed cattle increased 5.3% on a YOY basis throughout Nov ’21, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in marketings was the first experienced throughout the past five months. The 5.3% YOY increase in marketings was slightly larger than average analyst expectations of a 4.4% increase.

’19-’20 annual marketings of fed cattle declined 2.9% on a YOY basis from the 11 year high level experienced throughout the previous production season. ’20-’21 annual marketings rebounded by 3.1% on a YOY basis, reaching a 13 year high level.