Executive Summary

U.S. cattle & hog production figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Nov ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• Nov ’21 U.S. commercial red meat production finished 6.1% below previous year levels when normalizing for slaughter days, remaining lower on a YOY basis for the sixth consecutive month and reaching a four year low seasonal level.
• U.S. pork production declined 8.2% on a YOY basis, also remaining below previous year levels for the sixth consecutive month and reaching a four year low seasonal level. The total number of hogs slaughtered declined 7.3% on a YOY basis throughout Nov ’21 while average weights per head finished 1.0% lower YOY.
• U.S. beef production declined 3.8% on a YOY basis, remaining below previous year levels for the fifth consecutive month and reaching a five year low seasonal level. The total number of cattle slaughtered declined 3.2% on a YOY basis throughout Nov ’21 while average weights per head finished 0.4% lower YOY.

Additional Report Details

Total Red Meat – Production Reaches a Four Year Low Seasonal Level, Down 6.1% YOY

According to the USDA, Nov ’21 U.S. commercial red meat production declined contraseasonally from the nine month high level experienced throughout the previous month, finishing 6.1% below previous year levels when normalizing for slaughter days and reaching a four year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in total red meat production was the sixth experienced in a row. The month-over-month decline in total red meat production of 1.1% was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average October – November seasonal increase of 2.8%. The October – November decline in total red meat production was the first experienced throughout the past 13 years and the largest experienced throughout the past 17 years on a percentage basis.

’19-’20 annual red meat production finished 1.5% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a record high level for the fourth consecutive year. ’20-’21 annual red meat production increased by an additional 0.3% on a YOY basis, despite declines experienced throughout the final third of the production season.

Total 12-month rolling average red meat production remained above trendline for the 51^st consecutive month throughout Nov ’21. The most recent deviation from trendline was the smallest experienced throughout the past 30 months, however.

Pork – Production Reaches a Four Year Low Seasonal Level, Down 8.2% YOY

Nov ’21 U.S. pork production declined contraseasonally from the seven month high level experienced throughout the previous month, finishing 8.2% below previous year levels when normalizing for slaughter days and reaching a four year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in pork production was the sixth experienced in a row. The total number of hogs slaughtered declined 7.3% YOY throughout the month while average weights per head finished 1.0% below previous year levels.

’19-’20 annual pork production finished 3.3% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a record high level for the sixth consecutive year. ’20-’21 annual pork production declined by 1.5% on a YOY basis, however.

Beef – Production Reaches a Five Year Low Seasonal Level, Down 3.8% YOY

Nov ’21 U.S. beef production declined from the 12 month high level experienced throughout the previous month, finishing 3.8% below previous year levels when normalizing for slaughter days and reaching a five year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in beef production was the fifth experienced in a row. The total number of cattle slaughtered declined 3.2% YOY throughout the month while average weights per head finished 0.4% below previous year levels.

’19-’20 annual beef production declined 0.2% on a YOY basis from the 16 year high level experienced throughout the previous production season. ’20-’21 annual beef production rebounded by 2.2% on a YOY basis, however, reaching a record high annual level, despite declines experienced throughout the final quarter of the production season.