Executive Summary

U.S. cold storage figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Nov ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. pork stocks finished 3.1% below previous year levels throughout Nov ’21, reaching an 11 year low level and a 24 year low seasonal level for the month of November.
• U.S. beef stocks remained below previous year levels for the ninth consecutive month, finishing down 3.5%.
• U.S. chicken stocks remained at a seven year low seasonal level throughout Nov ’21, finishing 16.0% below previous year levels. The YOY decline in chicken stocks was the 16^th experienced in a row.

Additional Report Details

Pork – Stocks Decline to an 11 Year Low Level, Finish 3.1% Lower YOY

According to the USDA, Nov ’21 U.S. frozen pork stocks declined seasonally to an 11 year low level, finishing 3.1% below previous year levels and reaching a 24 year low seasonal level for the month of November. The YOY decline in pork stocks was the 19^th experienced throughout the past 20 months. The month-over-month decline in pork stocks of 35.1 million pound, or 7.9%, was largely consistent with the ten year average October – November seasonal decline in stocks of 44.4 million pounds, or 7.7%.

Beef – Stocks Remain Below Previous Year Levels for the Ninth Consecutive Month, Down 3.5%

Nov ’21 U.S. frozen beef stocks increased seasonally to a nine month high level but remained 3.5% below previous year volumes. The YOY decline in beef stocks was the ninth experienced in a row. The month-over-month increase in beef stocks of 19.8 million pounds, or 4.2%, was larger than the ten year average October – November seasonal build in stocks of 6.9 million pounds, or 1.7%.

Chicken – Stocks Remain at a Seven Year Low Seasonal Level, Down 16.0% YOY

Nov ’21 U.S. frozen chicken stocks declined contraseasonally from the eight month high level experienced throughout the previous month while finishing 16.0% below previous year levels. Chicken stocks reached a seven year low seasonal level for the month of November, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the 16^th consecutive month. Chicken stocks had finished higher on a YOY basis over ten consecutive months through Jul ’20, prior to finishing lower over each of the past 16 months of available data. The month-over-month decline in chicken stocks of 15.3 million pounds, or 2.0%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average October – November seasonal build in stocks of 7.4 million pounds, or 1.0%.

Overall, Nov ’21 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks finished 21% below the monthly record high level experienced throughout Jan ’20. Individually, Nov ’21 beef and chicken stocks finished 13% and 24% below their respective record high historical storage levels, while pork stocks finished 42% below the maximum historical storage level.

Nov ’21 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks remained at a seven year low seasonal level, finishing 19% below the record high seasonal level experienced during November of 2019. Individually, Nov ’21 beef stocks finished seven percent below the record high seasonal storage level, while chicken and pork stocks finished 24% and 29% below their respective record high seasonal storage levels.

Nov ’21 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks declined seasonally from the seven month high level experienced throughout the previous month while finishing 9.5% below previous year levels. The Nov ’21 YOY decline in combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks was the 19^th experienced in a row.