Corn – U.S. and Global Ending Stocks Above Private Estimates

• ’21-’22 U.S. ending stocks of 1.493 billion bushels slightly above expectations
• ’21-’22 global ending stocks of 304.4 million MT above expectations

The ’21-’22 U.S. corn supply projection was raised slightly from the previous month on a 0.5 bu/acre increase in yields. The ’21-’22 corn yield projection of 177.0 bu/acre finished 0.1% above expectations of a 176.9 bu/acre yield. The U.S. corn demand projection was raised slightly from the previous month on an increase in ethanol usage, more than offsetting the increase in projected supply. ’21-’22 projected U.S. corn ending stocks of 1.493 billion bushels, or 36.7 days of use, finished 0.5% below the previous month but 0.6% above expectations.

The ’21-’22 global corn ending stock projection finished 0.9% above the previous month and 1.1% above expectations, primarily on an increase in projected Chinese beginning stocks, coupled with an increase in projected Brazilian beginning stocks.

Soybeans – U.S. and Global Ending Stocks Below Private Estimates

• ’21-’22 U.S. ending stocks of 340 million bushels significantly below expectations
• ’21-’22 global ending stocks of 103.8 million MT below expectations

The ’21-’22 U.S. soybean supply projection was reduced slightly from the previous month on a 0.3 bu/acre decline in yields. The ’21-’22 soybean yield projection of 51.2 bu/acre finished 1.3% below expectations of a 51.9 bu/acre yield. The U.S. soybean demand projection was reduced slightly from the previous month, largely on reduced export demand, more than offsetting the decline in projected supply. ’21-’22 projected U.S. soybean ending stocks of 340 million bushels, or 28.5 days of use, finished 6.3% above the previous month but 7.1% below expectations.

The ’21-’22 global soybean ending stock projection finished 0.8% below the previous month and 1.7% below expectations, largely on declines in projected Argentine production and beginning stocks, which more than offset lower projected Argentine exports.

Soybean Complex – U.S. Oil Stocks Raised, U.S. Meal Stocks Unchanged

The ’21-’22 U.S. soybean oil ending stock projection was raised from the previous month on an increase in beginning stocks. Globally, ’21-’22 soybean oil ending stocks were largely unchanged from the previous month.

The ’21-’22 U.S. soybean meal ending stock projection was unchanged from the previous month as a reduction in projected beginning stocks offset a projected increase in production. Globally, ’21-’22 global soybean meal ending stock projections were raised from the previous month, primarily on increases in Indian production and Argentine beginning stocks.

Wheat – U.S. and Global Ending Stocks Mixed vs. Private Estimates

• ’21-’22 U.S. ending stocks of 583 million bushels slightly above expectations
• ’21-’22 global ending stocks of 275.8 million MT slightly below expectations

The ’21-’22 U.S. wheat supply projection was reduced slightly from the previous month on a reduction in imports while the U.S. wheat demand projection was reduced slightly from the previous month, largely on a reduction in export demand. ’21-’22 projected U.S. wheat ending stocks of 583 million bushels, or 105.2 days of use, finished 0.5% above the previous month and 0.2% above expectations.

The ’21-’22 global wheat ending stock projection finished 0.5% below the previous month and 0.4% below expectations, primarily on a projected decline in European Union production and a projected increase in Indian exports.

Ending Stocks vs. Expectations Summary

Overall, ’21-’22 projected domestic soybean ending stocks finished most significantly below expectations, followed by global soybean ending stocks and global wheat ending stocks. Global corn ending stocks finished most significantly above expectations, followed by domestic corn ending stocks and domestic wheat ending stocks.