Executive Summary

U.S. dairy cow slaughter figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Jul ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• Jul ’21 U.S. dairy cow slaughter rates increased 8.3% on a YOY basis when normalizing for slaughter days, reaching a 28 month high growth rate.
• Jul ’21 YOY increases in dairy cow slaughter rates were led by were led by Standard Federal Region 9 (Arizona, California, Hawaii and Nevada), followed by Standard Federal Region 6 (Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas.
• Recent upticks in slaughter rates have contributed to the Jul ’21 U.S. milk cow herd finishing 9,000 head below recently experienced 26 year high levels.

Additional Report Details

According to the USDA, Jul ’21 U.S. dairy cow slaughter rates increased seasonally to a three month high level while finishing 8.3% above previous year levels when normalizing for slaughter days. The month-over-month increase in slaughter rates of 4.4% was consistent with the ten year average June – July seasonal increase of 4.2%.

Dairy cow slaughter rates had finished higher on a YOY basis over 30 consecutive months through Jul ’19 prior to finishing flat or lower throughout 16 of 18 months through Jan ’21. More recently, dairy cow slaughter rates have finished higher on a YOY basis over four of the past six months through Jul ’21. The Jul ’21 YOY increase in dairy cow slaughter rates was the largest experienced throughout the past 28 months on a percentage basis. U.S. dairy cow slaughter has declined 2.5% on a YOY basis throughout the first ten months of the ’20-’21 production season, despite the most recent increase.

Recent declines in slaughter rates have contributed to the U.S. milk cow herd growing significantly throughout the first half of 2021. The Jul ’21 U.S. milk cow herd figure finished 9,000 head below the 26 year high level experienced throughout May ’21 but remained 128,000 head above the previous year.

Month-over-month increases in dairy cow slaughter rates were most significant throughout Standard Federal Region 9 (Arizona, California, Hawaii and Nevada), followed by Standard Federal Region 5 (Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio and Wisconsin).

YOY increases in dairy cow slaughter were led by Standard Federal Region 9 (Arizona, California, Hawaii and Nevada), followed by Standard Federal Region 6 (Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas.

2019 annual dairy cow slaughter rates increased 2.3% on a YOY basis, reaching a 33 year high and a 35 year high level on a percentage of the total dairy cow herd basis. 2020 annual dairy cow slaughter rates declined 5.6% on a YOY basis, however, reaching a three year low level on both an absolute and percentage of the total dairy cow herd basis.