Executive Summary

U.S. cold storage figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Apr ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. butter stocks remained higher on a YOY basis for the 22^nd consecutive month throughout Apr ’21, finishing up 3.4% and reaching a 27 year high level.
• U.S. cheese stocks declined contraseasonally throughout Apr ’21, finishing 1.7% below previous year levels but remaining at the second highest seasonal level on record.

Additional Report Details

Butter – Stocks Reach a 27 Year High Level, Finish 3.4% Higher YOY

According to the USDA, Apr ’21 U.S. butter stocks increased seasonally to a 27 year high level, finishing 3.4% above previous year levels. Butter stocks have finished higher on a YOY basis over 22 consecutive months through Apr ’21, although the Apr ’21 YOY increase in butter stocks was the smallest experienced throughout the past 18 months on a percentage basis. The month-over-month increase in butter stocks of 27.9 million pounds, or 7.8%, was smaller than the ten year average March – April seasonal increase of 33.1 million pounds, or 13.5%. Butter stocks typically reach seasonal low levels throughout the month of November, prior to increasing seasonally throughout the month of December and the first half of the calendar year.

On a days of usage basis, Apr ’21 U.S. butter stocks also finished below previous year levels. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of April, butter stocks on a days of usage basis declined YOY for just the second time in the past ten months, finishing down 2.2%.

Cheese – Stocks Decline Contraseasonally From the Previous Month, Finish 1.7% Lower YOY

Apr ’21 U.S. cheese stocks declined contraseasonally from the 11 month high level experienced throughout the previous month while finishing 1.7% lower on a YOY basis. The YOY decline in cheese stocks was the first experienced throughout the past six months. American cheese stocks declined 0.4% on a YOY basis throughout the month while other-than-American cheese stocks finished 3.4% below previous year levels. The month-over-month decline in cheese stocks of 15.9 million pounds, or 1.1%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average March – April seasonal increase of 28.7 million pounds, or 2.3%. Despite declining on a YOY basis, cheese stocks remained at the second highest seasonal level on record for the month of April.

On a days of usage basis, Apr ’21 U.S. cheese stocks also finished below previous year levels. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of April, cheese stocks on a days of usage basis declined YOY for the third time in the past four months, finishing down 3.0%.

Combined Dairy Product Stocks – Apr ’21 Stocks Projected to Finish Below Previous Year Levels

Combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and nonfat dry milk remained at a record high seasonal level for the 14^th consecutive month throughout Mar ’21, finishing 4.4% above previous year levels. Combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and nonfat dry milk are projected to finish lower on a YOY basis throughout Apr ’21 when using actual butter and cheese stock figures and previous month YOY changes in dry whey and nonfat dry milk stocks, however, declining by an estimated 2.7%. Projected combined dairy product stocks are expected to remain at the third highest monthly level on record throughout Apr ’21, despite finishing below previous year levels. Apr ’21 dry whey and nonfat dry milk stock figures are scheduled to be available Jun 4^th.