Executive Summary

EU-27+UK milk production figures provided by Eurostat and the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board of the United Kingdom were recently updated with values spanning through Mar ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• EU-27+UK milk production volumes increased 0.3% on a YOY basis throughout Mar ’21, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in EU-27+UK milk production volumes was the first experienced throughout the past three months.
• Mar ’21 YOY increases in milk production were led by Ireland, followed by the United Kingdom, while production volumes declined most significantly from the previous year throughout Germany and France. Overall, just 12 of the 28 countries experienced YOY increases in milk production throughout the month, despite total EU-27+UK production finishing slightly higher throughout the month.
• EU-27+UK beef & dairy cow slaughter rates finished lower on a YOY basis for the 11^th time in the past 13 months during Feb ’21 when normalizing for slaughter days, declining by 1.9% and reaching a six year low seasonal level.

Additional Report Details

According to Eurostat and the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board of the United Kingdom, Mar ’21 EU-27+UK milk production volumes increased seasonally to a nine month high level while finishing 0.3% higher on a YOY basis. EU-27+UK milk production volumes reached a record high seasonal level for the eighth time in the past ten months throughout Mar ’21.

Figures for Denmark, Sweden and Luxembourg are not yet available and are based on the previous month YOY change in production. Denmark, Sweden and Luxembourg have combined to account for just 5.7% of total EU-27+UK production volumes throughout the past 12 months.

’20-’21 annual EU-27+UK milk production volumes finished 0.5% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a record high level for the fourth consecutive year.

The Mar ’21 YOY increase in EU-27+UK milk production volumes was the first experienced throughout the past three months. EU-27+UK milk production volumes had declined on a YOY basis just once in the 23 month period ending Dec ’20, prior to finishing lower throughout the months of January and February.

Mar ’21 YOY increases in production on an absolute basis were led by Ireland, followed by the United Kingdom, while YOY declines in production on an absolute basis were led by Germany, followed by France.

YOY increases in production on a percentage basis were led by Cyprus (+15.7%), followed by Ireland (+13.5%) and Hungary (+7.4%), while declines in production on a percentage basis were led by Malta (-5.7%), followed by Denmark (-5.0%) and the Czech Republic (-2.9%).

Just four of the top ten milk producing member states experienced YOY increases in milk production during Mar ’21 however production within the top ten milk producing member states increased by a weighted average of 0.6% throughout the month. The top ten EU-27+UK milk producing member states accounted for over 85% of the total EU-27+UK milk production experienced throughout the month. Production outside of the top ten milk producing member states declined by 0.1% on a YOY basis, however. Overall, just 12 of the 28 countries experienced YOY increases in production volumes during Mar ’21.

EU-27+UK beef & dairy cow slaughter finished lower on a YOY basis for the 11^th time in the past 13 months during Feb ’21 when normalizing for slaughter days, declining by 1.9% and reaching a six year low seasonal level. YOY declines in beef & dairy cow slaughter were most significant throughout Ireland, followed by the Netherlands and Poland.

’19-’20 annual EU-27+UK bovine slaughter declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past six years, finishing down 1.8% and reaching a four year low level. ’20-’21 YTD slaughter figures have declined by an additional 3.9% heading into the final month of the production season.

The USDA estimates that the EU-27+UK dairy cow herd declined 1.2% throughout the 2020 calendar year due to feed shortages stemming from recent droughts but noted additional culling rates, coupled with improved genetics, are expected to have a positive impact on future per cow productivity as lower producing animals are culled. The USDA is projecting an additional 0.3% YOY decline in the EU-27+UK dairy cow herd throughout 2021, following the general trend toward smaller herds and more productive animals.