Corn – U.S. and Global Ending Stocks Below Private Estimates

• ’20-’21 U.S. ending stocks of 1.502 billion bushels below expectations
• ’20-’21 global ending stocks of 286.5 million MT slightly below expectations

The ’20-’21 U.S. corn supply projection was unchanged from the previous month while the demand projection was raised on increases in projected exports, feed & residual usage and ethanol usage. ’20-’21 projected U.S. corn ending stocks of 1.352 billion bushels, or 33.4 days of use, finished 10.0% below the previous month and 3.2% below expectations.

The ’20-’21 global corn ending stock projection finished 1.3% below the previous month and 0.3% below expectations, primarily on the decline in domestic stocks.

Soybeans – U.S. and Global Ending Stocks Above Private Estimates

• ’20-’21 U.S. ending stocks of 120 million bushels slightly above expectations
• ’20-’21 global ending stocks of 83.4 million MT above expectations

The ’20-’21 U.S. soybean supply projection was unchanged from the previous month while an increase in projected exports offset lower projected feed & residual and food, seed & industrial usage, resulting in an unchanged demand projection. ’20-’21 projected U.S. soybean ending stocks of 120 million bushels, or 9.6 days of use, finished 0.8% above expectations.

The ’20-’21 global soybean ending stock projection finished 3.7% above the previous month and 4.0% above expectations. Brazilian production projections were increased from the previous month while Chinese crush was reduced.

Soybean Complex – U.S. Oil Stocks Lower, Meal Stocks Unchanged

The ’20-’21 U.S. soybean oil ending stock projection was reduced slightly from the previous month as a reduction in projected production more than offset a reduction in exports. The ’20-’21 U.S. soybean meal ending stock projection was unchanged from the previous month.

Globally, ’20-’21 soybean oil ending stocks were largely unchanged from the previous month while ’20-’21 global soybean meal ending stocks were raised from the previous month, largely on increases in Argentine and Brazilian production.

Wheat – U.S. and Global Ending Stocks Mixed vs. Private Estimates

• ’20-’21 U.S. ending stocks of 836 million bushels slightly above expectations
• ’20-’21 global ending stocks of 304.2 million MT below expectations

The ’20-’21 U.S. wheat supply projection was reduced slightly on a reduction in projected imports while the demand projection was reduced slightly on lower feed & residual usage. ’20-’21 projected U.S. wheat ending stocks of 852 million bushels, or 147.2 days of use, finished 1.9% above the previous month and 0.6% above expectations.

The ’20-’21 global wheat ending stock projection finished 1.9% below the previous month and 2.0% below expectations, primarily on an increase in Chinese feed usage.

Ending Stocks vs. Expectations Summary

Overall, ’20-’21 projected domestic corn ending stocks finished most significantly below expectations, followed by global wheat ending stocks and global corn ending stocks. Global soybean ending stocks finished most significantly above expectations, followed by domestic soybean ending stocks and domestic wheat ending stocks.