Executive Summary

U.S. cattle & hog production figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Jan ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• Jan ’21 U.S. commercial red meat production declined 1.1% on a YOY basis, finishing lower for the second consecutive month.
• U.S. pork production declined 0.9% on a YOY basis throughout Jan ’21, finishing lower for the second consecutive month. A 2.8% YOY decline in the total number of hogs slaughtered more than offset a 1.7% YOY increase in average weights per head throughout the month.
• U.S. beef production declined 1.2% on a YOY basis throughout Jan ’21, finishing lower for the second consecutive month. A 3.3% YOY decline in the total number of cattle slaughtered more than offset a 1.7% YOY increase in average weights per head throughout the month.

Additional Report Details

Total Red Meat – Production Remains Lower YOY for the Second Consecutive Month, Down 1.1%

According to the USDA, Jan ’21 U.S. commercial red meat production remained lower on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month, finishing 1.6% below previous year levels when normalizing for slaughter days. Total red meat production had finished higher on a YOY basis over six consecutive months through Nov ’20, prior to declining over the two most recent months of data. Total red meat production reached a record high monthly level throughout Nov ’20.

’19-’20 annual red meat production finished 1.5% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a record high level for the fourth consecutive year. ’20-’21 YTD red meat production has increased by an additional 0.2% on a YOY basis throughout the first third of the production season, despite the recent declines.

Total 12-month rolling average red meat production remained above trendline for the 40^st consecutive month throughout Jan ’21, although the most recent deviation from trendline remained significantly below the record high level experienced throughout Mar ’20.

Pork – Production Remains Lower YOY for the Second Consecutive Month, Down 0.9%

Jan ’21 U.S. pork production increased contraseasonally from the previous month but remained lower on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month, finishing 0.9% below previous year levels when normalizing for slaughter days. The Jan ’21 total number of hogs slaughtered declined 2.8% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 1.7% YOY increase in average weights per head. The month-over-month increase in pork production of 0.8% was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average December – January seasonal decline of 1.0%.

’19-’20 annual pork production finished 3.3% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a record high level for the sixth consecutive year. ’20-’21 YTD pork production has increased by an additional 0.1% on a YOY basis throughout the first third of the production season, despite the recent declines.

Beef – Production Remains Lower YOY for the Second Consecutive Month, Down 1.2%

Jan ’21 U.S. beef production increased seasonally from the previous month but remained lower on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month, finishing 1.2% below previous year levels when normalizing for slaughter days. The Jan ’21 total number of cattle slaughter declined 3.3% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 1.7% YOY increase in average weights per head. The month-over-month increase in beef production of 1.4% was slightly larger than the ten year average December – January seasonal increase of 1.1%.

’19-’20 annual beef production declined 0.2% on a YOY basis from the 16 year high level experienced throughout the previous production season. ’20-’21 YTD beef production has rebounded by 0.3% on a YOY basis throughout the first third of the production season, however, despite the recent declines.