Dairy WASDE Update – Jan ’21
According to the January USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) report, the 2020 U.S. milk production projection was raised two million pounds from the previous month on higher cow inventories. 2020 projected milk production equates to a 1.8% YOY increase from 2019 production levels. 2020 YTD milk production has increased 1.6% on a YOY basis heading into the final month of the calendar year.
The 2021 milk production projection was raised four million pounds from the previous month, also on higher cow inventories. 2021 projected milk production equates to a 2.0% YOY increase from 2020 projected levels, on pace to reach a seven year high growth rate. The 2021 milk production projection was the largest experienced throughout the nine months of available projections.
2020 dairy export forecasts were reduced from the previous month on a skim-solids basis on recent trade data while remaining unchanged on a milk-fat basis. 2020 dairy import forecasts were reduced on a milk-fat basis on lower expected imports of butterfat products while remaining unchanged on a skim-solids basis.
2021 dairy export forecasts were raised on a milk-fat basis on higher expected exports of butterfat products while remaining unchanged on a skim-solids basis. 2021 dairy import forecasts were reduced on both a milk-fat and skim-solids basis.
2020 projected dairy export volumes translated to 16.6% of total U.S. milk solids production while import volumes were equivalent to 3.7% of total U.S. milk solids production. 2021 projected dairy export volumes translated to 17.1% of total U.S. milk solids production, up 0.5% from the previous year projection, while import volumes were equivalent to 3.6% of total U.S. milk solids production, down 0.1% from the previous year projection. 2021 net dairy trade is projected to reach a record high level, exceeding the previous record high level projected throughout 2020.
2021 butter, cheese, dry whey and nonfat dry milk price forecasts were all raised from the previous month on firm domestic demand. The 2021 Class III milk price forecast of $16.90/cwt was raised $1.30/cwt from the previous forecast but remained 6.9% below previous year price levels. The 2021 Class IV milk price forecast of $14.10/cwt was raised $0.50/cwt from the previous forecast, finishing 4.5% above previous year price levels. The 2021 All-Milk price forecast of $17.65/cwt was raised $1.05/cwt from the previous forecast but remained 3.6% below 2020 price levels, reaching a three year low level, overall.
2020 dairy export forecasts were reduced from the previous month on a skim-solids basis on recent trade data while remaining unchanged on a milk-fat basis. 2020 dairy import forecasts were reduced on a milk-fat basis on lower expected imports of butterfat products while remaining unchanged on a skim-solids basis.
2021 dairy export forecasts were raised on a milk-fat basis on higher expected exports of butterfat products while remaining unchanged on a skim-solids basis. 2021 dairy import forecasts were reduced on both a milk-fat and skim-solids basis.
2020 projected dairy export volumes translated to 16.6% of total U.S. milk solids production while import volumes were equivalent to 3.7% of total U.S. milk solids production. 2021 projected dairy export volumes translated to 17.1% of total U.S. milk solids production, up 0.5% from the previous year projection, while import volumes were equivalent to 3.6% of total U.S. milk solids production, down 0.1% from the previous year projection. 2021 net dairy trade is projected to reach a record high level, exceeding the previous record high level projected throughout 2020.
2021 butter, cheese, dry whey and nonfat dry milk price forecasts were all raised from the previous month on firm domestic demand. The 2021 Class III milk price forecast of $16.90/cwt was raised $1.30/cwt from the previous forecast but remained 6.9% below previous year price levels. The 2021 Class IV milk price forecast of $14.10/cwt was raised $0.50/cwt from the previous forecast, finishing 4.5% above previous year price levels. The 2021 All-Milk price forecast of $17.65/cwt was raised $1.05/cwt from the previous forecast but remained 3.6% below 2020 price levels, reaching a three year low level, overall.