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Grain & Oilseeds WASDE Update – Nov ’20

  • November 10, 2020
  • by Belinda Przybylski
Corn – U.S. and Global Ending Stocks Below Private Estimates
  • ’20-’21 U.S. ending stocks of 1.702 billion bushels significantly below expectations
  • ’20-’21 global ending stocks of 291.4 million MT below expectations
The ’20-’21 U.S. corn supply projection was reduced from the previous month on a 2.6 bu/acre decline in projected yields. The projected corn yield of 175.8 bu/acre finished 1.5% below the previous month and 1.2% below expectations. The ’20-’21 U.S. corn usage projection was raised from the previous month as higher projected exports more than offset lower projected feed & residual usage. ’20-’21 projected U.S. corn ending stocks of 1.702 billion bushels, or 41.9 days of use, finished 21.5% below the previous month and 16.9% below expectations. The ’20-’21 global corn ending stock projection finished 3.0% below the previous month and 1.8% below expectations, driven lower by the decline in domestic ending stocks. Chinese corn ending stocks were raised from the previous month on an increase in imports, which is expected to more than offset an increase in feed usage. Soybeans – U.S. and Global Ending Stocks Below Private Estimates
  • ’20-’21 U.S. ending stocks of 190 million bushels significantly below expectations
  • ’20-’21 global ending stocks of 86.5 million MT below expectations
The ’20-’21 U.S. soybean supply projection was reduced from the previous month on a 1.2 bu/acre decline in projected yields. The projected soybean yield of 50.7 bu/acre finished 2.3% below the previous month and 1.7% below expectations. The ’20-’21 U.S. soybean usage projection was largely unchanged from the previous month. ’20-’21 projected U.S. soybean ending stocks of 190 million bushels, or 15.3 days of use, finished 34.5% below the previous month and 22.1% below expectations. The ’20-’21 global soybean ending stock projection finished 2.5% below the previous month and 1.1% below expectations, driven lower by the reduction in domestic ending stocks. Soybean Complex – U.S. Oil Stocks Higher, Meal Stocks Lower The ’20-’21 U.S. soybean oil ending stock projection was raised from the previous month primarily on an increase in projected beginning stocks. The ’20-’21 U.S. soybean meal ending stock projection was reduced from the previous month primarily on a reduction in projected beginning stocks. Globally, ’20-’21 soybean oil ending stocks were largely unchanged from the previous month. ’20-’21 global soybean meal ending stocks were reduced from the previous month on declines in Argentine and EU-28 stocks. Wheat – U.S. and Global Ending Stocks Mixed vs. Private Estimates
  • ’20-’21 U.S. ending stocks of 877 million bushels slightly below expectations
  • ’20-’21 global ending stocks of 320.5 million MT slightly above expectations
The ’20-’21 U.S. wheat supply projection was unchanged from the previous month while demand projections were raised slightly on an increase in food, seed & industrial usage. ’20-’21 projected U.S. wheat ending stocks of 877 million bushels, or 152.3 days of use, finishing 0.7% below the previous month and 0.6% below expectations. The ’20-’21 global wheat ending stock projection finished 0.3% below the previous month but remained 0.2% above expectations. Ending Stocks vs. Expectations Summary Overall, ’20-’21 projected domestic soybean ending stocks finished most significantly below expectations, followed closely by domestic corn ending stocks. Domestic wheat, global corn and global soybean ending stocks also finished below expectations. Global wheat ending stocks finished slightly above expectations.  
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