U.S. Dairy Dry Product Stocks Update – Jul ’20
Executive Summary
U.S. dairy dry product stock figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through May ’20. Highlights from the updated report include:
According to the USDA, May ’20 month-end dry whey stocks increased 12.4% from the previous month, reaching a 27 month high level and finishing 28.6% higher on a YOY basis. The YOY increase in dry whey stocks was the first experienced throughout the past three months and the largest experienced throughout the past 28 months on a percentage basis. The MOM increase in dry whey stocks of 9.3 million pounds, or 12.4%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average April – May seasonal decline in dry whey stocks of 0.7 million pounds, or 1.0%. Dry whey production increased 8.9% on a YOY basis throughout May ’20, finishing higher for the ninth time in the past ten months.
On a days of usage basis, May ’20 U.S. dry whey stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of May, dry whey stocks on a days of usage basis finished 25.2% higher YOY, increasing on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month.
Nonfat Dry Milk – Stocks Remain at a Record High Seasonal Level, Finish up 18.8% YOY
May ’20 month-end nonfat dry milk (NFDM) stocks declined 12.2% month-over-month from the record high level experienced throughout the previous month but remained 18.8% higher on a YOY basis, finishing at a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in NFDM stocks was the fourth experienced in a row. NFDM stocks had finished lower on a YOY basis over eight consecutive months prior to the four most recent increases in stock volumes. The MOM decline in NFDM stocks of 48.0 million pounds, or 12.2%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average April – May seasonal build in NFDM stocks of 2.8 million pounds, or 1.7%. NFDM production declined 9.2% on a YOY basis throughout May ‘20, finishing lower for just the second time in the past 13 months.
On a days of usage basis, May ’20 U.S. NFDM stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of May, NFDM stocks on a days of usage basis finished 16.8% higher YOY, increasing on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive month.
Combined Dairy Product Stocks – Stocks Remain at a Record High Seasonal Level, Finishing up 10.2%
May ’20 combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and NFDM declined from the previous month but remained 10.2% higher on a YOY basis, finishing at a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in combined stocks was the fourth experienced in a row.
- U.S. dry whey stocks increased to a 27 month high level throughout May ’20, finishing 28.6% higher on a YOY basis.
- May ’20 U.S. nonfat dry milk stocks declined contraseasonally from the record high level experienced throughout the previous month but remained 18.8% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a record high seasonal level.
According to the USDA, May ’20 month-end dry whey stocks increased 12.4% from the previous month, reaching a 27 month high level and finishing 28.6% higher on a YOY basis. The YOY increase in dry whey stocks was the first experienced throughout the past three months and the largest experienced throughout the past 28 months on a percentage basis. The MOM increase in dry whey stocks of 9.3 million pounds, or 12.4%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average April – May seasonal decline in dry whey stocks of 0.7 million pounds, or 1.0%. Dry whey production increased 8.9% on a YOY basis throughout May ’20, finishing higher for the ninth time in the past ten months.
On a days of usage basis, May ’20 U.S. dry whey stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of May, dry whey stocks on a days of usage basis finished 25.2% higher YOY, increasing on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month.
Nonfat Dry Milk – Stocks Remain at a Record High Seasonal Level, Finish up 18.8% YOY
May ’20 month-end nonfat dry milk (NFDM) stocks declined 12.2% month-over-month from the record high level experienced throughout the previous month but remained 18.8% higher on a YOY basis, finishing at a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in NFDM stocks was the fourth experienced in a row. NFDM stocks had finished lower on a YOY basis over eight consecutive months prior to the four most recent increases in stock volumes. The MOM decline in NFDM stocks of 48.0 million pounds, or 12.2%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average April – May seasonal build in NFDM stocks of 2.8 million pounds, or 1.7%. NFDM production declined 9.2% on a YOY basis throughout May ‘20, finishing lower for just the second time in the past 13 months.
On a days of usage basis, May ’20 U.S. NFDM stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of May, NFDM stocks on a days of usage basis finished 16.8% higher YOY, increasing on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive month.
Combined Dairy Product Stocks – Stocks Remain at a Record High Seasonal Level, Finishing up 10.2%
May ’20 combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and NFDM declined from the previous month but remained 10.2% higher on a YOY basis, finishing at a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in combined stocks was the fourth experienced in a row.