Quarterly Canadian Milk Production Update – Dec ’19
Executive Summary Canadian milk production figures provided by Statistics Canada were recently updated with values spanning through the end of the first quarter of the ’19-’20 production season. Highlights from the updated report include:
- Canadian milk sold off farms increased on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month during Oct ’19, finishing up 2.2%. ’19-’20 YTD Canadian milk sold off farms has increased 1.5% YOY and is on pace to reach a record high annual level.
- The Canadian milk cow herd has plateaued over the last several years following significant declines experienced since the beginning of the Canadian dairy supply management system. Statistics Canada shows the Canadian milk cow herd declining slightly on a YOY basis as of Jul 1st, 2019, but remaining 1.3% above three year average figures.
- The USDA expects Canadian net exports of skim milk powder/nonfat dry milk will decline to a four year low level throughout 2020, added by the eliminating of the Class 7 milk class as part of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Under the USMCA, Canadian skim milk powder, milk protein concentrate and infant formula will be priced at U.S. nonfat dry milk price levels instead of the lowest of prices experienced throughout the major dairy exporting regions.