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Soybean Complex Crushing & Stocks Update – Dec ’19

  • December 4, 2019
  • by Belinda Przybylski
Executive Summary U.S. soybean crush and stocks figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Oct ’19. Highlights from the updated report include:
  • Oct ’19 U.S. soybean crushings increased on a YOY basis for the third time in the past four months, finishing up 2.0% and reaching a five year high seasonal level.
  • Oct ’19 U.S. soybean cake & meal stocks declined 16.1% YOY, reaching a five year seasonal low level.
  • Oct ’19 U.S. soybean oil stocks rebounded from the 22 month low level experienced throughout the previous month but remained 13.5% below previous year volumes.
Additional Report Details Soybean Crushing – Crush Reaches a Five Year High Seasonal Level, Finishes up 2.0% YOY According to USDA, Oct ’19 U.S. soybean crushings finished higher on a YOY basis for the third time in the past four months, increasing 2.0% and reaching a five year high seasonal level. Oct ’19 YOY increases in soybean crushings were largest throughout the North Central states of Michigan, Minnesota, North Dakota and South Dakota, followed by the West Central states of Kansas, Missouri and Nebraska. Soybean crushings finished most significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the South, West & Pacific states of Alabama, Arkansas, California, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina and South Carolina. 2018 annual soybean crushings increased 9.4% YOY, reaching a record annual high, however 2019 YTD soybean crushings remain down 0.7% on a YOY basis throughout the first ten months of the calendar year, despite the most recent YOY increase. Cake & Meal accounted for 73.1% of the total soybean crush throughout Oct ’19, up slightly from the previous year, while oil accounted for 17.4% of the total soybean crush, down slightly from the previous year. Oct ’19 soybean oil produced as a percentage of total crush declined from the two year high level experienced throughout the previous month, finishing below historical average figures for just the second time in the past 13 months. Soybean Cake & Meal Stocks – Stocks Finish 16.1% Lower YOY, Reach a Five Year Low Seasonal Level Oct ’19 U.S. soybean cake & meal stocks declined 7.0% MOM and 16.1% YOY, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the seventh time in the past nine months and reaching a five year seasonal low level. The seasonal decline in soybean cake & meal stocks of 7.0% was a contraseasonal move when compared to the three year September – October seasonal average build in stocks of 7.5%. Oct ’19 soybean cake & meal stocks finished 7.4% below three year average seasonal levels. Soybean Oil Stocks – Stocks Rebound Month-Over-Month but Remain Down 13.5% YOY Oct ’19 U.S. soybean oil stocks rebounded 5.1% MOM from the 22 month low level experienced throughout the previous month but remained 13.5% below previous year volumes. The YOY decline in soybean oil stocks was the tenth experienced in a row but the smallest experienced throughout the past seven months on a percentage basis. The seasonal build in soybean oil stocks of 5.1% was a contraseasonal move when compared to the three year September – October seasonal average decline of 0.9%. Oct ’19 soybean oil stocks finished 0.5% below three year average seasonal levels.  
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