Ethanol Rail Movements Update – Dec ’19
Sep ’19 ethanol rail movements of 18.4 million barrels declined 11.8% MOM on a daily average basis to a 35 month low, finishing 15.1% below previous year levels. The Sep ’19 YOY decline in ethanol rail movements was the first experienced throughout the past five months but the second largest experienced throughout the past six and a half years on a percentage basis. 2019 YTD ethanol rail movements have declined 4.7% YOY throughout the first three quarters of the calendar year. 12 month rolling average ethanol rail movements have ranged from 60% – 69% of monthly ethanol production, historically. Sep ’19 ethanol rail movements accounted for 66.5% of monthly production on a 12 month rolling average basis, remaining above the two year low levels experienced during Apr ’19. Ethanol rail movement figures are broken out by Petroleum Administration for Defense District (PADD) for both originating rail movements and destinations of shipments. The U.S. is regionally divided into five PADDs, which include the East Coast, Midwest, Gulf Coast, Rocky Mountain and West Coast. Over 99% of rail movements originated in PADD 2 (Midwest) during Sep ’19, with the remaining volumes originating in PADD 3 (Gulf Coast). Over 9.3 million barrels of ethanol rail movements were destined to PADD 1 (East Coast) during Sep ’19, leading all regional districts. Ethanol rail movements destined to PADD 1 (East Coast) accounted for 51% of the total shipments during Sep ’19. Combined shipments to PADD 1 (East Coast), PADD 3 (Gulf Coast) and PADD 5 (West Coast) accounted for 91% of total ethanol rail movements, with minimal amounts being shipped to Canada, PADD 2 (Midwest) and PADD 4 (Rocky Mountain). Sep ’19 ethanol rail movements destined to PADD 1 (East Coast) finished most significantly above historical average figures while ethanol movements destined to PADD 2 (Midwest) and PADD 5 (West Coast) each finished below historical average figures throughout the month.