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Grain & Oilseeds WASDE Update – Oct ’19

  • October 10, 2019
  • by Belinda Przybylski
Corn – U.S. and Global Ending Stocks Above Private Estimates
  • ’19-’20 U.S. ending stocks of 1.929 billion bushels above expectations
  • ’19-’20 global ending stocks of 302.6 million MT slightly above expectations
’19-’20 U.S. corn supply projections were reduced from the previous month as slightly lower projected harvested acres, coupled with reduced beginning stocks, more than offset slightly higher projected yields. Corn harvested acres were reduced by 0.2 acres, or 0.2%, while yields were raised by 0.2 bushels/acre, or 0.1%, from the previous month estimate. ’19-’20 usage projections were reduced from the previous month on lower exports, food, seed & industrial usage and ethanol usage, which more than offset higher projected feed usage. ’19-’20 projected U.S. corn ending stocks of 1.929 billion bushels, or 50.2 days of use, finished 11.9% below the previous month estimate but remained 8.1% above expectations. The ’19-’20 global corn ending stock projection finished 1.2% below the previous month estimate but remained 1.5% above expectations. Lower projected beginning stocks within the U.S. accounted for the majority of the decline in the global corn ending stocks projection. Soybeans – U.S. and Global Ending Stocks Below Private Estimates
  • ’19-’20 U.S. ending stocks of 460 million bushels significantly below expectations
  • ’19-’20 global ending stocks of 95.2 million MT slightly below expectations
’19-’20 U.S. soybean supply projections were reduced from the previous month on reductions in projected harvested acres and yields, coupled with a decline in beginning stocks. Soybean harvested acres were reduced by 0.3 acres, or 0.4%, while yields were reduced by 1.0 bushels/acre, or 2.1%, from the previous month estimate. ’19-’20 usage projections were largely unchanged from the previous month estimate while ’19-’20 projected U.S. soybean ending stocks of 460 million bushels, or 41.7 days of use, finished 28.1% below the previous month estimate and 11.7% below expectations. The ’19-’20 global soybean ending stock projection finished 4.0% below the previous month estimate and 1.3% below expectations. Lower projected beginning stocks and production within the U.S. accounted for the majority of the decline in the global soybean ending stocks projection. ’19-’20 U.S. soybean meal ending stocks were unchanged from the previous month as an increase in projected supply was more than offset by an increase in projected domestic disappearance. Globally, ’19-’20 soybean meal ending stocks were reduced from the previous month primarily on lower projected beginning stocks throughout Argentina, Brazil and Southeast Asia. ’19-’20 U.S. soybean oil ending stocks were raised slightly from the previous month on higher projected production. An increase in projected food, feed & industrial usage more than offset a decline in projected biodiesel usage from the previous month. Globally, ’19-’20 soybean oil ending stocks were unchanged from the previous month. Wheat – U.S. and Global Ending Stocks Slightly Above Private Estimates
  • ’19-’20 U.S. ending stocks of 1.043 billion bushels slightly above expectations
  • ’19-’20 global ending stocks of 287.8 million MT slightly above expectations
’19-’20 U.S. wheat supply projections were reduced from the previous month as lower projected harvested acres and imports more than offset slightly higher projected beginning stocks. Wheat harvested acres were reduced by 0.3 acres, or 0.8%, while yields were unchanged from the previous month estimate. ’19-’20 usage projections were reduced from the previous month on lower feed usage and exports. ’19-’20 projected U.S. wheat ending stocks of 1.043 billion bushels, or 179.7 days of use, finished 2.9% above the previous month estimate and 2.8% above expectations. The ’19-’20 global wheat ending stock projection finished 0.5% above the previous month estimate and 0.9% above expectations. Lower projected domestic usage and exports within the U.S. accounted for the majority of the increase in the global wheat ending stocks projection. Ending Stocks vs. Expectations Summary Overall, ’19-’20 projected U.S. corn ending stocks finished most significantly above expectations, while global corn stocks and both U.S. and global wheat stocks also finished above expectations. Domestic soybean ending stock projections finished most significantly below expectations while global soybean stocks also finished lower.  
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