Ethanol Rail Movements Update – Sep ’19
Jun ’19 ethanol rail movements of 20.2 million barrels declined 5.5% MOM on a daily average basis to a three month low, finishing 2.3% below previous year levels. The Jun ’19 YOY decline in ethanol rail movements was the sixth experienced throughout the past seven months. 2019 YTD ethanol rail movements have declined 6.5% YOY throughout the first half of the calendar year. 12 month rolling average ethanol rail movements have ranged from 60% – 69% of monthly ethanol production, historically. Jun ’19 ethanol rail movements accounted for 66.0% of monthly production on a 12 month rolling average basis, remaining near recently experienced two year low levels. Ethanol rail movement figures are broken out by Petroleum Administration for Defense District (PADD) for both originating rail movements and destinations of shipments. The U.S. is regionally divided into five PADDs, which include the East Coast, Midwest, Gulf Coast, Rocky Mountain and West Coast. Over 97% of rail movements originated in PADD 2 (Midwest) during Jun ’19, with the remaining volumes originating in PADD 3 (Gulf Coast). Over 7.6 million barrels of ethanol rail movements were destined to PADD 1 (East Coast) during Jun ’19, leading all regional districts. Ethanol rail movements destined to PADD 1 (East Coast) accounted for 38% of the total shipments during Jun ’19. Combined shipments to PADD 1 (East Coast), PADD 3 (Gulf Coast) and PADD 5 (West Coast) accounted for 92% of total ethanol rail movements, with minimal amounts being shipped to PADD 2 (Midwest), Canada and PADD 4 (Rocky Mountain). Jun ’19 ethanol rail movements destined to PADD 3 (Gulf Coast) remained most significantly above historical average figures while ethanol movements destined to PADD 1 (East Coast), PADD 2 (Midwest) and PADD 4 (Rocky Mountains) each finished below historical average figures throughout the month.