U.S. Dairy Cold Storage Update – Aug ’19
Executive Summary
U.S. cold storage figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Jul ’19. Highlights from the updated report include:
According to USDA, Jul ’19 U.S. butter stocks increased contraseasonally to a 12 month high while finishing higher on a YOY basis for the first time in the past seven months, increasing 3.6%. Butter stocks reached the second highest seasonal level experienced throughout the past 26 years, trailing only the Jul ’16 stocks figure. The MOM increase in butter stocks of 3.5 million pounds, or 1.1%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average June – July seasonal decline of 7.5 million pounds, or 2.9%. U.S. butter stocks typically build seasonally throughout the first half of the calendar year after reaching seasonal low levels throughout the month of November but begin to decline seasonally throughout the month of July.
On a days of usage basis, Jul ’19 U.S. butter stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of July, butter stocks on a days of usage basis increased YOY for the second consecutive month, finishing up 1.2%.
Cheese – Stocks Continue to Decline Contraseasonally, Finish Down 3.5% YOY
Jul ’19 U.S. cheese stocks declined 1.3% MOM and 3.5% YOY, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month and reaching a three year seasonal low level for the month of July. Cheese stocks had finished higher on a YOY basis over 55 consecutive months prior to declining over the past two months. American cheese stocks declined 5.8% YOY throughout the month while other-than-American cheese stocks. The MOM seasonal decline in cheese stocks of 18.3 million pounds, or 1.3%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average June – July seasonal build of 19.4 million pounds, or 1.7%. The monthly contraseasonal decline in cheese stocks was the third experienced in a row.
On a days of usage basis, Jul ’19 U.S. cheese stocks also finished lower YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of July, cheese stocks on a days of usage basis declined YOY for the third consecutive month, finishing down 5.5%.
- Jul ’19 U.S. butter stocks increased contraseasonally from the previous month, reaching a 12 month high and finishing 3.6% above previous year figures. The YOY increase in butter stocks was the first experienced throughout the past seven months.
- Jul ’19 U.S. cheese stocks declined contraseasonally for the third consecutive month while finishing 3.5% below previous year levels, declining on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month. Cheese stocks had finished higher on a YOY basis over 55 consecutive months prior to the two most recent YOY declines.
According to USDA, Jul ’19 U.S. butter stocks increased contraseasonally to a 12 month high while finishing higher on a YOY basis for the first time in the past seven months, increasing 3.6%. Butter stocks reached the second highest seasonal level experienced throughout the past 26 years, trailing only the Jul ’16 stocks figure. The MOM increase in butter stocks of 3.5 million pounds, or 1.1%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average June – July seasonal decline of 7.5 million pounds, or 2.9%. U.S. butter stocks typically build seasonally throughout the first half of the calendar year after reaching seasonal low levels throughout the month of November but begin to decline seasonally throughout the month of July.
On a days of usage basis, Jul ’19 U.S. butter stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of July, butter stocks on a days of usage basis increased YOY for the second consecutive month, finishing up 1.2%.
Cheese – Stocks Continue to Decline Contraseasonally, Finish Down 3.5% YOY
Jul ’19 U.S. cheese stocks declined 1.3% MOM and 3.5% YOY, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month and reaching a three year seasonal low level for the month of July. Cheese stocks had finished higher on a YOY basis over 55 consecutive months prior to declining over the past two months. American cheese stocks declined 5.8% YOY throughout the month while other-than-American cheese stocks. The MOM seasonal decline in cheese stocks of 18.3 million pounds, or 1.3%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average June – July seasonal build of 19.4 million pounds, or 1.7%. The monthly contraseasonal decline in cheese stocks was the third experienced in a row.
On a days of usage basis, Jul ’19 U.S. cheese stocks also finished lower YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of July, cheese stocks on a days of usage basis declined YOY for the third consecutive month, finishing down 5.5%.