Ethanol Rail Movements Update – May ’18
Mar ’18 ethanol rail movements of 24.9 million barrels increased 11.9% MOM on a daily average basis and 8.5% YOY, finishing at a new record monthly high. Total ethanol rail movements finished 32.8% above historical average figures reported since the beginning of 2010. Ethanol rail movements have finished higher on a YOY basis over 13 of the past 15 months through Mar ’18. 2017 annual rail movements finished up 7.0%, reaching a record annual high, while 2018 rail movements are up an additional 6.5% throughout the first quarter of the year. 12 month rolling average ethanol rail movements have ranged from 60% – 68% of monthly ethanol production, historically. Mar ’18 ethanol rail movements accounted for 68.1% of monthly production on a 12 month rolling average basis, reaching a five and a half year high. Ethanol rail movement figures are broken out by Petroleum Administration for Defense District (PADD) for both originating rail movements and destinations of shipments. The U.S. is regionally divided into five PADDs, which include the East Coast, Midwest, Gulf Coast, Rocky Mountain and West Coast. Over 99% of rail movements originated in PADD 2 (Midwest) during Mar ’18, with the remaining volumes originating in PADD 3 (Gulf Coast) and PADD 4 (Rocky Mountains). Nearly 9.5 million barrels of ethanol rail movements were destined to PADD 1 (East Coast) during Mar ’18, leading all regional districts. Ethanol rail movements destined to PADD 1 (East Coast) accounted for over 38% of the total shipments during Mar ’18. Combined shipments to PADD 1 (East Coast), PADD 3 (Gulf Coast) and PADD 5 (West Coast) consisted of over 90% of total ethanol rail movements, with minimal amounts being shipped to PADD 2 (Midwest), PADD 4 (Rocky Mountain) and Canada. Mar ’18 ethanol rail movements destined to PADD 3 (Gulf Coast) remained near the record high levels experienced during the final months of 2017. Ethanol rail movements destined to PADD 3 (Gulf Coast) finished 29.0% above historical average figures throughout Mar ’18 while ethanol rail movements destined to PADD 5 (West Coast) finished 10.5% above historical average figures.