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Grain WASDE Update – May ’18

  • May 11, 2018May 11, 2018
  • by Belinda Przybylski
Corn – ’18-’19 U.S. Ending Stocks Above Private Estimates, Global Stocks Significantly Lower
  • ’18-’19 U.S. ending stocks of 1.682 billion bushels above expectations
  • ’18-’19 global ending stocks of 159.15 million MT significantly below expectations
’18-’19 U.S. corn production, domestic use, exports and ending stocks are all projected to be lower than levels experienced a year ago. Higher projected corn used for ethanol production is expected to be offset by lower feed and residual usage due to a smaller crop and higher expected prices. ’18-’19 projected U.S. corn ending stocks of 1.682 billion bushels, or 42.1 days of use, finished 3.3% above expectations. ’18-’19 global corn production is expected to increase 1.9% YOY however global consumption is expected to increase 2.1% YOY, resulting in a drawdown in global stocks. The ’18-’19 global corn ending stock projection finished 14.6% below expectations. Soybeans – ’18-‘19 U.S. Ending Stocks Significantly Below Private Estimates, Global Stocks Lower
  • ’18-’19 U.S. ending stocks of 415 million bushels significantly below expectations
  • ’18-’19 global ending stocks of 86.7 million MT below expectations
’18-’19 U.S. soybean supplies are projected above levels experienced a year ago as higher beginning stocks more than offset lower production volumes. Total soybean usage is projected up 5.5% YOY on higher domestic and export usage. ’18-’19 projected U.S. soybean ending stocks of 415 million bushels, or 34.3 days of use, finished 22.4% below expectations. ’18-’19 global soybean production is expected to increase 5.3% YOY while global consumption is expected to increase 4.5% YOY. The ’18-’19 global wheat ending stock projection finished 4.2% below expectations. Wheat – ’18-’19 U.S. Ending Stocks Above Private Estimates, Global Stocks Finish Lower
  • ’18-’19 U.S. ending stocks of 955 million bushels above expectations
  • ’18-’19 global ending stocks of 264.33 million MT below expectations
’18-’19 U.S. wheat production is projected to increase 4.6% YOY, driven higher by a greater harvested area and slightly higher yield. Reduced beginning stocks and lower projected imports are expected to more than offset the increased production volumes, resulting in lower total supplies than a year ago. Total wheat usage is projected up 3.2% YOY on higher domestic and export usage. ’18-’19 projected U.S. wheat ending stocks of 955 million bushels, or 168.2 days of use, finished 1.8% below expectations. ’18-’19 global wheat production is expected to decline 1.4% YOY while global consumption is expected to increase 1.4% YOY, resulting in a drawdown in global stocks. The ’18-’19 global wheat ending stock projection finished 1.8% below expectations. Ending Stocks vs. Expectations Summary Overall, ’18-’19 projected U.S. corn and wheat ending stocks finished above expectations however soybean projected ending stocks finished significantly below private estimates. ’18-’19 projected global corn stocks finished significantly below expectations while global soybean and wheat ending stocks also finished below private estimates.
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