EIA Drilling Productivity Report Update – Apr ’18
According to the EIA’s April Drilling Productivity Report, U.S. oil output is expected to continue to increase through future months. The Drilling Productivity Report uses recent data on the total number of drilling rigs in operation, estimates of drilling productivity, and estimated changes in production from existing wells to provide estimated changes in oil production for the seven key regions shown below. Apr ’18 production levels were revised 1.2% below levels previously forecasted but are expected to remain 118,000 barrels per day (bpd), or 1.7%, above Mar ’18 production levels. May ’18 production levels are expected to increase an additional 125,000 bpd, or 1.8%, from the Apr ’18 revised production levels to 6.996 million bpd, finishing at the highest figure on record. May ’18 production forecasts are expected to finish higher on a YOY basis for the 14th consecutive month, up 24.9% from the previous year levels. The May ’18 projected MOM increase in oil production would be the 16th experienced in the past 17 months and the largest experienced throughout the past three months on an absolute basis. Oil production is expected to remain strong within the Permian region (+2.4% MOM), while production is also expected to increase significantly MOM within the Eagle Ford (+1.8%), Bakken (+1.3%) and Niobrara (+1.1%) regions. The aforementioned regions accounted for over 95% of the total expected YOY gains in production during May ’18. U.S. drilled-but-uncompleted (DUC) wells continue to set new highs since the figures began being compiled in Dec ’13. DUC wells have been drilled by producers, but have not yet been made ready for production. The Mar ’18 DUC wells figure of 7,692 finished 1.2% above the previous month, driven higher by a sharp increase in Permian DUC wells. DUC wells, particularly in the Permian, Eagle Ford and Anadarko regions, will likely contribute to additional oil production heading into the second quarter of 2018.