EU-28 Milk Production Update – Nov ’16
EU-28 Milk Production Update – Nov ’16
Executive Summary
EU-28 milk production figures provided by Eurostat were recently updated with values spanning through Sep ’16. Highlights from the updated report include:
EU-28 milk production declined on a YOY basis throughout the final months of the ’14-’15 production season as producers attempted to limit superlevy penalties for exceeding milk production quota levels but rebounded throughout the ’15-’16 production season in the post-quota environment. The Sep ’16 YOY decline in production was against record high levels experienced throughout the first year of post-quota production. Overall, ’15-’16 annual EU-28 milk production finished 4.0% higher YOY.
YOY declines in production experienced throughout Sep ’16 were led by France (-141,520 MT), followed by the United Kingdom (-98,300 MT) and Germany (-77,560 MT). The aforementioned countries accounted for over 40% of the total monthly EU-28 milk production and the vast majority of the YOY production declines experienced during Sep ’16. YOY declines in production on a percentage basis were led by Belgium (-8.4%), followed by Slovakia (-8.3%), the United Kingdom (-8.2%) and France (-7.3%), while increases on a percentage basis were most significant in Cyprus (+16.9%), the Czech Republic (+9.1%) and Malta (+8.5%). Production within the Netherlands increased on a YOY basis for the 18th consecutive month through Sep ’16, finishing up 3.9%, however the increase in production volumes was the lowest experienced throughout the past 17 months on a percentage basis.
Seven of the ten top milk producing Member States experienced YOY declines in milk production during Sep ’16, declining by a weighted average of 3.0% throughout the month. The top ten EU-28 milk producing Member States accounted for over 85% of the total EU-28 milk production throughout the month. Overall, 15 of the 28 member states experienced YOY declines in production volumes during Sep ’16.
Aug ’16 EU-28 beef & dairy cow slaughter increased on a YOY basis for the sixth time in the past seven months, finishing up 8.3%. YOY increases in beef & dairy cow slaughter were led by France, followed by the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Germany. The European Commission’s €150 million voluntary milk reduction scheme, which was announced in July and will come into force October 1st, likely contributed to the increased culling experienced during the month of August. The voluntary milk reduction scheme is expected to result in a 1.1% YOY reduction in total EU-28 milk deliveries in addition to YOY declines experienced over the past four months.
EU-28 bovine slaughter has finished higher on a YOY basis over nine of the past 12 months through August. USDA expects the EU-28 dairy cow herd to be marginally lower throughout 2016 but recent culling is expected to have a positive impact on future per cow productivity as lower producing animals are culled. Total EU-28 beef & dairy cow slaughter finished 1.3% higher YOY throughout the ’15-’16 production season and is up an additional 3.8% throughout the first five months of the ’16-’17 production season.
- EU-28 milk production declined on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month during Sep ’16, finishing down 2.8%. The YOY decline in EU-28 milk production was the largest experienced in over three and a half years on a percentage basis.
- Milk production declined on a YOY basis most significantly within France, followed by the United Kingdom and Germany. Overall, production declined within seven of the top ten milk producing member states throughout the month of September.
- Continued YOY increases in slaughter rates likely contributed to the decline in milk production experienced during Sep ’16. Aug ’16 EU-28 bovine slaughter rates increased on a YOY basis for the sixth time in the past seven months, finishing up 8.3%.
EU-28 milk production declined on a YOY basis throughout the final months of the ’14-’15 production season as producers attempted to limit superlevy penalties for exceeding milk production quota levels but rebounded throughout the ’15-’16 production season in the post-quota environment. The Sep ’16 YOY decline in production was against record high levels experienced throughout the first year of post-quota production. Overall, ’15-’16 annual EU-28 milk production finished 4.0% higher YOY.
YOY declines in production experienced throughout Sep ’16 were led by France (-141,520 MT), followed by the United Kingdom (-98,300 MT) and Germany (-77,560 MT). The aforementioned countries accounted for over 40% of the total monthly EU-28 milk production and the vast majority of the YOY production declines experienced during Sep ’16. YOY declines in production on a percentage basis were led by Belgium (-8.4%), followed by Slovakia (-8.3%), the United Kingdom (-8.2%) and France (-7.3%), while increases on a percentage basis were most significant in Cyprus (+16.9%), the Czech Republic (+9.1%) and Malta (+8.5%). Production within the Netherlands increased on a YOY basis for the 18th consecutive month through Sep ’16, finishing up 3.9%, however the increase in production volumes was the lowest experienced throughout the past 17 months on a percentage basis.
Seven of the ten top milk producing Member States experienced YOY declines in milk production during Sep ’16, declining by a weighted average of 3.0% throughout the month. The top ten EU-28 milk producing Member States accounted for over 85% of the total EU-28 milk production throughout the month. Overall, 15 of the 28 member states experienced YOY declines in production volumes during Sep ’16.
Aug ’16 EU-28 beef & dairy cow slaughter increased on a YOY basis for the sixth time in the past seven months, finishing up 8.3%. YOY increases in beef & dairy cow slaughter were led by France, followed by the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Germany. The European Commission’s €150 million voluntary milk reduction scheme, which was announced in July and will come into force October 1st, likely contributed to the increased culling experienced during the month of August. The voluntary milk reduction scheme is expected to result in a 1.1% YOY reduction in total EU-28 milk deliveries in addition to YOY declines experienced over the past four months.
EU-28 bovine slaughter has finished higher on a YOY basis over nine of the past 12 months through August. USDA expects the EU-28 dairy cow herd to be marginally lower throughout 2016 but recent culling is expected to have a positive impact on future per cow productivity as lower producing animals are culled. Total EU-28 beef & dairy cow slaughter finished 1.3% higher YOY throughout the ’15-’16 production season and is up an additional 3.8% throughout the first five months of the ’16-’17 production season.