U.S. Livestock Cold Storage Update – Oct ’16
Executive Summary
U.S. cold storage figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Sep ’16. Highlights from the updated report include:
• U.S. pork stocks remained lower on a YOY basis for the eighth consecutive month during Sep ’16 while chicken stocks declined on a YOY basis for only the second time in the past 22 months.
• U.S. beef stocks finished higher on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month during Sep ’16, increasing to a 13 year high and a record seasonal high for the month of September.
• Sep ’16 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken remained 1.9% below the record high experienced in Oct ’15 and 1.2% below the record high seasonal level for the month of September experienced during the previous year.
Additional Report Details
Pork – Stocks Decline on a YOY Basis for the Eighth Consecutive Month, Finish Down 2.1%
According to USDA, Sep ’16 U.S. frozen pork stocks of 642.0 million pounds increased 5.4% MOM but remained lower on a YOY basis, finishing down 2.1%. Pork stocks have finished lower on a YOY basis for eight consecutive months through September, however the most recent YOY decline in stocks was the smallest experienced over the period. The MOM increase in pork stocks of 33.1 million pounds was larger than the ten year average August – September seasonal increase in stocks of 24.9 million pounds, contributing to the relatively small YOY decline. Despite remaining lower on a YOY basis, Sep ’16 pork stocks finished 8.6% above three year average figures for the month of September.
Beef – Stocks Reach a Record Seasonal High for the Month of September, Finish up 4.5% YOY
Sep ’16 U.S. frozen beef stocks of 520.7 million pounds increased 9.3% MOM and 4.5% YOY, finishing at a new record high for the month of September and a new 13 year high on an absolute basis. The MOM increase in beef stocks of 44.1 million pounds was significantly greater than the ten year average August – September seasonal increase in stocks of 11.0 million pounds. Sep ’16 beef stocks finishing 18.2% higher than three year average figures for the month of September.
Chicken – Stocks Decline on a YOY Basis for the Second Consecutive Month, Finish Down 3.9%
Sep ’16 U.S. frozen chicken stocks of 768.7 million pounds declined 0.6% MOM and 3.9% YOY, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month. U.S. chicken stocks had increased on a YOY basis for 20 consecutive months prior to the two most recent YOY declines. Sep ’16 chicken stocks remained at the second highest seasonal level experienced throughout the past ten years, however, finishing 9.7% higher than three year average figure for the month of September. Stocks built throughout the past two years as the Russian import ban negatively affected U.S. broiler exports. U.S. broiler export volumes have declined by 7.8% YOY since the ban was announced. The MOM decline in chicken stocks of 5.0 million pounds was consistent with the the ten year average August – September seasonal decline in stocks of 4.5 million pounds.
Overall, combined Sep ’16 U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks remained 1.9% below the monthly record high experienced in Oct ’15. Individually, Sep ’16 U.S. beef stocks finished within 1% of the historical maximum storage level while pork and chicken stocks finished within 10% and 20% of historical maximum storage levels, respectively.
Sep ’16 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks finished 1.2% below the record high seasonal storage level for the month of September experienced during the previous year. Beef stocks finishing at a record seasonal high while pork and chicken stocks finished within 3% and 15% of historical maximum storage levels for the month of September, respectively.
According to USDA, Sep ’16 U.S. frozen pork stocks of 642.0 million pounds increased 5.4% MOM but remained lower on a YOY basis, finishing down 2.1%. Pork stocks have finished lower on a YOY basis for eight consecutive months through September, however the most recent YOY decline in stocks was the smallest experienced over the period. The MOM increase in pork stocks of 33.1 million pounds was larger than the ten year average August – September seasonal increase in stocks of 24.9 million pounds, contributing to the relatively small YOY decline. Despite remaining lower on a YOY basis, Sep ’16 pork stocks finished 8.6% above three year average figures for the month of September.
Beef – Stocks Reach a Record Seasonal High for the Month of September, Finish up 4.5% YOY
Sep ’16 U.S. frozen beef stocks of 520.7 million pounds increased 9.3% MOM and 4.5% YOY, finishing at a new record high for the month of September and a new 13 year high on an absolute basis. The MOM increase in beef stocks of 44.1 million pounds was significantly greater than the ten year average August – September seasonal increase in stocks of 11.0 million pounds. Sep ’16 beef stocks finishing 18.2% higher than three year average figures for the month of September.
Chicken – Stocks Decline on a YOY Basis for the Second Consecutive Month, Finish Down 3.9%
Sep ’16 U.S. frozen chicken stocks of 768.7 million pounds declined 0.6% MOM and 3.9% YOY, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month. U.S. chicken stocks had increased on a YOY basis for 20 consecutive months prior to the two most recent YOY declines. Sep ’16 chicken stocks remained at the second highest seasonal level experienced throughout the past ten years, however, finishing 9.7% higher than three year average figure for the month of September. Stocks built throughout the past two years as the Russian import ban negatively affected U.S. broiler exports. U.S. broiler export volumes have declined by 7.8% YOY since the ban was announced. The MOM decline in chicken stocks of 5.0 million pounds was consistent with the the ten year average August – September seasonal decline in stocks of 4.5 million pounds.
Overall, combined Sep ’16 U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks remained 1.9% below the monthly record high experienced in Oct ’15. Individually, Sep ’16 U.S. beef stocks finished within 1% of the historical maximum storage level while pork and chicken stocks finished within 10% and 20% of historical maximum storage levels, respectively.
Sep ’16 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks finished 1.2% below the record high seasonal storage level for the month of September experienced during the previous year. Beef stocks finishing at a record seasonal high while pork and chicken stocks finished within 3% and 15% of historical maximum storage levels for the month of September, respectively.