U.S. High Fat Fluid Milk Sales Update – Aug…
Annual U.S. fluid milk sales have finished lower on a year-over-year (YOY) basis over six consecutive years through 2015, declining by an average of 1.9% throughout the period. 2016 YTD fluid milk sales have continued the seemingly perpetual decline, however consumption levels are down just 1.0% YOY from January – June, the lowest decline experienced over the past seven years.
The relatively small YOY decline in U.S. fluid milk sales experienced throughout the first six months of 2016 has been driven by an increase in the consumption of high fat milk. Whole milk sales have been particularly strong, increasing by 5.0% YOY and more than offsetting declining skim milk sales on a volume basis.
Fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk remained higher for the fifth consecutive month during Jun ’16, finishing up 1.1% YOY. Total fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk is up 1.3% YOY throughout the first three quarters of the ’15-’16 production season.
Fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk sales has increased on a 12-month rolling average basis over the past six months, the longest duration experienced since early 2010. The recent YOY increase in the 12-month rolling average consumption of fat within U.S. fluid milk was the largest on record.
Non-fat U.S. fluid milk sales have remained lower on a YOY basis for the past six years through Jun ’16, however, dragging down total fluid milk sales. The spread between the growth rates in fat and non-fat components consumed within U.S. fluid milk reached a new high in Jun ’16, despite the YOY decline in non-fat components contracting from the relative lows experienced during early 2015.
YOY declines in the non-fat component of U.S. fluid milk sales continues to offset the growth experienced in the high fat milk sales, however a tipping point is approaching if the trends continue. Assuming 12-month average growth rates in consumption going forward, U.S. fluid milk sales will begin to increase on a YOY basis in early 2017 as high fat milk continues to take market share of total U.S. fluid milk sales.
The relatively small YOY decline in U.S. fluid milk sales experienced throughout the first six months of 2016 has been driven by an increase in the consumption of high fat milk. Whole milk sales have been particularly strong, increasing by 5.0% YOY and more than offsetting declining skim milk sales on a volume basis.
Fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk remained higher for the fifth consecutive month during Jun ’16, finishing up 1.1% YOY. Total fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk is up 1.3% YOY throughout the first three quarters of the ’15-’16 production season.
Fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk sales has increased on a 12-month rolling average basis over the past six months, the longest duration experienced since early 2010. The recent YOY increase in the 12-month rolling average consumption of fat within U.S. fluid milk was the largest on record.
Non-fat U.S. fluid milk sales have remained lower on a YOY basis for the past six years through Jun ’16, however, dragging down total fluid milk sales. The spread between the growth rates in fat and non-fat components consumed within U.S. fluid milk reached a new high in Jun ’16, despite the YOY decline in non-fat components contracting from the relative lows experienced during early 2015.
YOY declines in the non-fat component of U.S. fluid milk sales continues to offset the growth experienced in the high fat milk sales, however a tipping point is approaching if the trends continue. Assuming 12-month average growth rates in consumption going forward, U.S. fluid milk sales will begin to increase on a YOY basis in early 2017 as high fat milk continues to take market share of total U.S. fluid milk sales.