EIA Drilling Productivity Report Update – Mar ’16
According to the EIA’s March Drilling Productivity Report, U.S. oil output is expected to continue to decline through Apr ’16. The Drilling Productivity Report uses recent data on the total number of drilling rigs in operation, estimates of drilling productivity, and estimated changes in production from existing wells to provide estimated changes in oil production for the seven key regions shown below. The seven regions analyzed have accounted for 95% of domestic oil production growth from 2011-2013. Mar ’16 production was revised higher by approximately 53,000 barrels per day (bpd), or 1.1%, but is expected to remain 84,000 bpd, or 1.7%, below Feb ’16 production levels. Apr ’16 production is expected to decline an additional 106,000 bpd, or 2.1%, from the Mar ’16 revised production levels to 4.87 million bpd, a 21 month low and 10.4% below the previous year. Projected MOM declines in oil production since the beginning of 2015 have been the largest experienced since the report was originated in 2007. The Apr ’16 projected declined in oil production was the second largest on record, trailing only the Jan ’15 decline in production. Projected MOM declines in oil production continue to be led by the Eagle Ford, Bakken and Niobrara regions. The aforementioned regions are expected to experience MOM production declines of 58,000 bpd (4.7%), 28,000 bpd (2.6%) and 15,000 bpd (3.6%), respectively in Mar ’16. Growth is expected to continue within the Utica region, however production within the Permian region is projected to decline MOM for the first time in ten months during Apr ’15.