U.S. Commercial Disappearance Update – Jan ’16
All Milk – Disappearance Remains Higher YOY on Milk-Fat and Skim-Solids Bases According to USDA, Nov ’15 U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products increased YOY on both a milk-fat basis and a skim-solids basis, finishing up 2.8% and 3.2%, respectively. Disappearance on a milk-fat basis finished at the second highest monthly figure on record and a record high for the month of November while disappearance on a skim-solids basis also finished at a November record high. Domestic demand continued to outpace international demand, finishing up 3.8% YOY on a milk-fat basis and 5.3% YOY on a skim-solids basis. Butter – Disappearance Increases to Second Highest Monthly Figure on Record, Finishes up 7.4% YOY Nov ’15 U.S. butter commercial disappearance increased 7.4% YOY and 31.2% MOM on a daily average basis to the second highest monthly figure on record. Butter disappearance remained higher on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month despite international demand continuing to remain weak. Nov ’15 domestic butter demand finished up 9.0% YOY to a new monthly record high while international demand declined 55.1% YOY. U.S. butterfat exports have declined YOY for 19 consecutive months as U.S. butter prices have traded at a premium to international prices and the U.S. Dollar has appreciated vs. rival currencies. ’14-’15 annual U.S. butter commercial disappearance declined 5.2% YOY to a three year low as a 74.8% decline in exports more than offset a 1.6% increase in domestic demand, however U.S. butter disappearance is up 4.8% YOY throughout the first two months of the ’15-’16 production season. Cheese – Disappearance Increases to New Monthly Record High, Finishes up 3.5% YOY Nov ’15 U.S. cheese commercial disappearance continued to increase, finishing 1.2% higher MOM on a daily average basis and 3.5% higher YOY to a new monthly record high. The YOY increase in cheese disappearance was the ninth experienced in the past ten months. American cheese and other-than-American cheese disappearance were both strong throughout November, increasing by 3.6% YOY and 3.4% YOY, respectively. Domestic cheese demand increased 4.1% YOY however export demand remained weak, declining 6.8% YOY. Cheese export volumes have declined YOY for 14 consecutive months while domestic demand has increased YOY for 13 consecutive months through November. ’14-’15 annual U.S. cheese commercial disappearance finished up 1.7% YOY to a new record annual high as a 2.9% increase in domestic demand more than offset a 14.1% decline in export demand. ’15-’16 YTD U.S. cheese disappearance is up an additional 2.5% YOY throughout the first two months of the production season. Dry Whey – Disappearance Remains Strong, Finishes at a Four Year High for the Month of November Nov ’15 U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance declined 7.5% MOM on a daily average basis but remained significantly higher YOY, finishing up 18.8% to a four year high for the month of November. Domestic dry whey commercial disappearance remained strong, increasing YOY for the 11th consecutive month and finishing 82.1% above the previous year, however U.S. dry whey export demand remained weak, finishing down 28.0% YOY. ’14-’15 annual U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance increased 1.2% YOY as a 26.1% increase in domestic demand more than offset a 17.9% decline in export demand. ’15-’16 YTD U.S. dry whey disappearance is up 23.4% YOY throughout the first two months of the production season. NFDM/SMP – Domestic Demand Slightly Lower YOY, Total Disappearance Finishes Flat Nov ’15 U.S. NFDM/SMP commercial disappearance declined 18.4% MOM on a daily average while finishing flat YOY. U.S. NFDM/SMP disappearance typically declines seasonally from October – November, however the MOM decline of 18.4% was larger than the ten year average October – November decline of 5.6%. Nov ’15 domestic NFDM/SMP disappearance declined by 1.2% YOY however the YOY decline in domestic demand was offset by a 1.2% YOY increase in NFDM/SMP exports. ’14-’15 annual U.S. NFDM/SMP commercial disappearance finished up 2.8% YOY as a 12.1% increase in domestic demand more than offset a 4.7% decline in export demand. ’15-’16 YTD U.S. NFDM/SMP disappearance remains up 9.1% YOY throughout the first two months of the production season. Fluid Milk Sales – Fat-Free Sales Continue to Weigh Down Overall Figures Oct ’15 U.S. fluid milk sales of 4.33 billion pounds declined YOY for the 28th time in the past 30 months, finishing 1.2% below the previous year. Total fluid milk sales continued to increase seasonally from the record low reached in Jul ’15 but remained at the lowest figure on record for the month of October. Sales of whole milk remained strong, finishing up 5.5% YOY, while fat-free milk sales declined 10.3% YOY. ’14-’15 annual total fluid milk sales finished down 1.8% YOY to the lowest annual figure on record. Annual whole milk sales finished up 2.2% however annual fat-free milk sales declined 10.8%. See the table below for a summary of key Nov ’15 U.S. dairy commercial disappearance figures in addition to the Oct ’15 U.S. fluid milk sales figure.