U.S. Commercial Disappearance Update – Dec ’15
All Milk – Disappearance Remains Higher YOY on Milk-Fat and Skim-Solids Bases According to USDA, Oct ’15 U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products increased YOY on both a milk-fat basis and a skim-solids basis, finishing up 0.6% and 2.2%, respectively. Disappearance on a milk-fat basis finished at the third highest figure on record for the month of October while disappearance on a skim-solids basis finished at an October record high. Domestic demand continued to outpace international demand, finishing up 1.3% YOY on a milk-fat basis and 3.4% YOY on a skim-solids basis. Butter – Disappearance Increases YOY for Third Consecutive Month Despite Weak Export Demand Oct ’15 U.S. butter commercial disappearance declined 5.6% MOM on a daily average basis but remained higher YOY, finishing 1.5% above the previous year. Butter disappearance remained higher on a YOY basis despite international demand continuing to remain weak. Oct ’15 domestic butter demand finished up 2.7% YOY while international demand declined 51.2% YOY. U.S. butterfat exports have declined YOY for 18 consecutive months as U.S. butter prices have traded at a premium to international prices and the U.S. Dollar has appreciated vs. rival currencies. Despite the recent increases in butter disappearance, ’14-’15 annual U.S. butter commercial disappearance declined 5.2% YOY to a three year low as a 74.8% decline in exports more than offset a 1.6% increase in domestic demand. Cheese – Disappearance Reaches Record High for the Month of October, Finishes up 0.8% YOY Oct ’15 U.S. cheese commercial disappearance continued to increase, finishing 0.1% higher MOM on a daily average basis and 0.8% higher YOY to a new record high for the month of October. The YOY increase in cheese disappearance was the eighth experienced in the past nine months. Other-than-American cheese disappearance was particularly strong, increasing by 3.0% YOY and more than offsetting a 2.6% YOY decline in American cheese disappearance. Domestic cheese demand increased 1.5% YOY however export demand remained weak, declining 10.1% YOY. Cheese export volumes have declined YOY for 13 consecutive months while domestic demand has increased YOY for 12 consecutive months through October. ’14-’15 annual U.S. cheese commercial disappearance finished up 1.7% YOY to a new record annual high as a 2.9% increase in domestic demand more than offset a 14.1% decline in export demand. Dry Whey – Disappearance Remains Strong, Finishes at a Six Year High for the Month of October Oct ’15 U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance declined 10.2% MOM on daily average basis but remained significantly higher YOY, finishing up 27.5% to a six year high for the month of October. Domestic dry whey commercial disappearance remained strong, increasing YOY for the tenth consecutive month and finishing 126.5% above the previous year, however U.S. dry whey export demand remained weak, finishing down 34.1% YOY. ’14-’15 annual U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance increased 1.2% YOY as a 26.1% increase in domestic demand more than offset a 17.9% decline in export demand. NFDM/SMP – Disappearance Increases to Record High for the Month of October on Strong Exports Oct ’15 U.S. NFDM/SMP commercial disappearance increased 15.7% YOY and 8.9% MOM on a daily average basis to a new record high for the month of October. Oct ’15 domestic NFDM/SMP disappearance increased by just 1.3% YOY however exports finished 28.5% higher YOY throughout the month. ’14-’15 annual U.S. NFDM/SMP commercial disappearance finished up 2.8% YOY as a 12.1% increase in domestic demand more than offset a 4.7% decline in export demand. Fluid Milk Sales – Fat-Free Sales Continue to Weigh Down Overall Figures Oct ’15 U.S. fluid milk sales of 4.33 billion pounds declined YOY for the 28th time in the past 30 months, finishing 1.2% below the previous year. Total fluid milk sales continued to increase seasonally from the record low reached in Jul ’15 but remained at the lowest figure on record for the month of October. Sales of whole milk remained strong, finishing up 5.5% YOY, while fat-free milk sales declined 10.3% YOY. ’14-’15 annual total fluid milk sales finished down 1.8% YOY to the lowest annual figure on record. Annual whole milk sales finished up 2.2% however annual fat-free milk sales declined 10.8%. See the table below for a summary of key Oct ’15 U.S. dairy commercial disappearance figures in addition to the Oct ’15 U.S. fluid milk sales figure.