EIA Drilling Productivity Report Update – Nov ’15
According to the EIA’s November Drilling Productivity Report, U.S. oil output is expected to continue to decline through Dec ’15. The Drilling Productivity Report uses recent data on the total number of drilling rigs in operation, estimates of drilling productivity, and estimated changes in production from existing wells to provide estimated changes in oil production for the seven key regions shown below. The seven regions analyzed have accounted for 95% of domestic oil production growth from 2011-2013. Nov ’15 production was revised lower by approximately 51,000 barrels per day (bpd), or 1.0%, and is expected to be approximately 95,000 bpd, or 1.8%, below Oct ’15 production levels. Dec ’15 production is expected to decline an additional 117,000 bpd, or 2.3%, from the Nov ’15 revised production levels to 4.95 million bpd, a 15 month low and 7.2% below the previous year. The projected MOM declines in oil production throughout 2015 have been the largest experienced since the report was originated in 2007. The Dec ’15 projected declined in oil production was the largest on record. Projected MOM declines in oil production continue to be led by the Eagle Ford, Bakken and Niobrara regions. The aforementioned regions are expected to experience MOM production declines of 5.8%, 2.4% and 5.9%, respectively in Dec ’15. Growth is expected to continue within the Permian and Utica regions, with projected production up 0.6% and 1.9% MOM, respectively, in Dec ’15.